178
FXUS66 KPQR 062026
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1226 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY,
RETURNING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SUB-ADVISORY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE CASCADE
PASSES. RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS, RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN COME CLOSE TO BREAKING
THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGH. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT DAILY RECORDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE HAVE NOW
WEAKENED AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN TROUTDALE (KTTD) AND THE
DALLES (KDLS) HAVE EASED TO -3 MB. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THESE LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STAGNANT AIR. THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST WA LOWLANDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. STAGNANT AIR MAY LEAD TO DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY.
FORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WON'T LAST MUCH LONGER SINCE THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY, RETURNING WELL-MIXED
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MINIMIZING CONCERNS FOR
FOG AND FROST.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RAINFALL INITIALLY LOOKS TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE PUSHING INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FT, MEANING EVEN CASCADE PASSES WILL SEE ALL
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
INLAND, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IT TO STALL, SUPPORTING HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. AT THIS TIME, THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL OREGON, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THAT THE FRONT INSTEAD STALLS TO THE NORTH OVER
NORTHWESTERN OREGON OR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. BY THE TIME
RAINFALL DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90%
CHANCE) OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AND GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY FROM 0.75-1.25 INCHES ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2-3
INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES, HOWEVER, THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THE LOWLANDS COULD
SEE THESE HIGHER END AMOUNTS IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER A
PARTICULAR LOCATION. GIVEN DRY WEATHER OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF
JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN THE LONGER DURATION RAIN EVENT
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING.
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION MAY YIELD
ISOLATED FLOODING IN URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. -10/36
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE WORKWEEK.
LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO
3000-4000 FT EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT PASS-LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITH SUB-ADVISORY SNOW. CHANCES FOR 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN A 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 4 PM TUESDAY
REMAINS ONLY AROUND 5-10% AT THE CASCADE PASSES. BY MID-WEEK,
THE MAJORITY OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST DRIER
CONDITIONS, THROUGH SOME MEMBERS MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT 80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING A DROP
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS HOW COOL WE'D GET. -10/36
AVIATION
AT 20Z FRIDAY, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA, ASIDE
FROM CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS AT KTTD AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT. HOWEVER, EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE AT
KTTD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM KTTD TO KDLS WEAKENS. NOTE SATELLITE AND SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN KSLE AND KEUG, BUT WITH NO IMPACTS
AT THE KSLE AND KEUG TERMINALS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THIS AREA
OF LOW STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY 21-22Z FRIDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH-END MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST,
BEGINNING BETWEEN 13-17Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ON THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST FIRST, BEFORE SPREADING DOWN THE
CENTRAL OR COAST LAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FOR INLAND
TERMINALS SOMETIME BETWEEN 18-20Z SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF HIGH CLOUDS HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL INLAND TERMINALS HAVE A
15-35% CHANCE FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 06-16Z SATURDAY,
EXCEPT KPDX AND KTTD WHERE LIGHT OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS,
EXCEPT AT KEUG WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO AT LEAST HINT
AT POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MOST
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-18Z SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE TERMINAL SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. BY 00Z SUNDAY, CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT INCREASE TO 45%. -23
MARINE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
STRENGTHENING TO 20 TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE COAST. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A 60-90% CHANCE
FOR INTERMITTENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT BEYOND 10 NM
BETWEEN 6AM-NOON SATURDAY AND 50-80% CHANCE WITHIN 10 NM. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF AND ISOLATED TO
WARRANT A GALE WARNING, LIKELY IMPACTING ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR
A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A STRONGLY WORDED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. THESE ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4
AM PST SUNDAY, EXCEPT THROUGH 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR.
FOR SEAS, EXPECT A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SWELL
TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITHIN THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE SEAS SHOULD
BE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTE THERE
IS A 5-10% CHANCE SEAS WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 14-15 FT.
IT APPEARS SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. -23
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6:
SITE RECORD TEMP
ASTORIA, OR 65F (1954)
VANCOUVER, WA61F (1907)
PORTLAND DOWNTOWN62F (1963, 1998)
PORTLAND AIRPORT59F (1998, 2020)
HILLSBORO, OR63F (1998)
MCMINNVILLE, OR 61F (1984)
SALEM, OR 67F (1998)
EUGENE, OR 66F (1963)
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ108-
115>118-123>125.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ204-
205.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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