811
FXUS66 KPQR 070500 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY,
RETURNING WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SUB-ADVISORY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE CASCADE
PASSES. RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS, RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN COME CLOSE TO BREAKING
THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGH. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT DAILY RECORDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE HAVE NOW
WEAKENED AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN TROUTDALE (KTTD) AND THE
DALLES (KDLS) HAVE EASED TO -3 MB. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THESE LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STAGNANT AIR. THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST WA LOWLANDS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. STAGNANT AIR MAY LEAD TO DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY.
FORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WON'T LAST MUCH LONGER SINCE THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING ON SATURDAY, RETURNING WELL-MIXED
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MINIMIZING CONCERNS FOR
FOG AND FROST.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RAINFALL INITIALLY LOOKS TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE PUSHING INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 6000-7000 FT, MEANING EVEN CASCADE PASSES WILL SEE ALL
RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
INLAND, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IT TO STALL, SUPPORTING HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. AT THIS TIME, THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL OREGON, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THAT THE FRONT INSTEAD STALLS TO THE NORTH OVER
NORTHWESTERN OREGON OR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON. BY THE TIME
RAINFALL DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90%
CHANCE) OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AND GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY FROM 0.75-1.25 INCHES ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2-3
INCHES ARE MOST LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES, HOWEVER, THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THE LOWLANDS COULD
SEE THESE HIGHER END AMOUNTS IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER A
PARTICULAR LOCATION. GIVEN DRY WEATHER OBSERVED THROUGH MUCH OF
JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN THE LONGER DURATION RAIN EVENT
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING.
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION MAY YIELD
ISOLATED FLOODING IN URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. -10/36
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE WORKWEEK.
LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO
3000-4000 FT EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT PASS-LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITH SUB-ADVISORY SNOW. CHANCES FOR 6
INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN A 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 4 PM TUESDAY
REMAINS ONLY AROUND 5-10% AT THE CASCADE PASSES. BY MID-WEEK,
THE MAJORITY OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST DRIER
CONDITIONS, THROUGH SOME MEMBERS MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS. GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT 80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING A DROP
IN 500 MB HEIGHTS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS HOW COOL WE'D GET. -10/36
AVIATION
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OFFSHORE GRADUALLY PUSHES INLAND ON SATURDAY. AS OF 04Z,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IFR MARINE STRATUS LINGERING NEAR THE
COAST, INCLUDING AT KONP. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY
12Z SATURDAY MORNING, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST WITH
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE COAST AFTER 18Z SAT MAY RESULT
IN IFR CONDITIONS (20% CHANCE). CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY INLAND
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT, REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS MUCH MORE UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
IS AT BEST A 10-20% CHANCE OF CONDITIONS DETERIORATING BELOW VFR.
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN FOR INLAND TERMINALS BY 16-18Z
SATURDAY, THOUGH COULD HOLD OFF A BIT LONGER FOR MORE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS INLAND INCREASE TO 50-60% AFTER 00-03Z SUNDAY. BREEZY
EAST WINDS CONTINUE NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE THROUGH AT LEAST
20Z SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN LIKELY BEGINS AT THE
TERMINAL AROUND 16-18Z SAT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER BUT LIKELY
REMAIN VFR. BY 00Z SUNDAY, CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS BELOW 3000 FT
INCREASE TO AROUND 50-60%. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6-12 KT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. /DH
MARINE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, STRENGTHENING TO 20
TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A 60-90% CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT BEYOND 10 NM BETWEEN 6AM-NOON
SATURDAY AND 50-80% CHANCE WITHIN 10 NM. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF AND ISOLATED TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING,
LIKELY IMPACTING ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. THEREFORE, HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A STRONGLY WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. THESE
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM PST SUNDAY, EXCEPT
THROUGH 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.
FOR SEAS, EXPECT A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SWELL
TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITHIN THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE SEAS SHOULD BE
HIGHEST ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTE THERE IS A
5-10% CHANCE SEAS WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 14-15 FT.
IT APPEARS SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ108-
115>118-123>125.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ204-
205.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page