041
FXUS66 KPQR 071135
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
335 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER THEN CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT PASS-LEVEL. A DRIER PATTERN RETURNS
MIDWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS MEAN TROUGHING
RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK TO MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
MOVE ONSHORE AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALREADY REACHING EASTWARD TO THE
CASCADES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THIS CLOUD COVER ACTING TO
MAINTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MINIMIZE CHANCES FOR FOG AND
FROST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
THIS MORNING. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS RAINFALL ONSET IN THE
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE REACHING INLAND TO THE I-5
CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY FROM THE COWLITZ VALLEY SOUTH THROUGH THE
PORTLAND AREA, AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 6000-7000 FT, YIELDING ALL RAIN AT THE CASCADE
PASSES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND, A FEATURE WHICH TENDS TO STALL THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND THE RELATIVE MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY ACTING
AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE INCIPIENT LOW OFFSET ONE ANOTHER.
A STALLED BOUNDARY WOULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE DURATION OF
HEAVIER RAIN RATES AND OBSERVED RAINFALL, HOWEVER GIVEN VERY
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THROUGH JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION,
EVEN HIGHER-END RAINFALL TOTALS PRESENT ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR
URBAN AND OTHER POOR-DRAINIAGE FLOODING, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING REMAINS VERY UNLIKELY.
AS CONSENSUS IN A LONGER DURATION OF RAIN HAS BUILT, FORECAST
TOTALS HAVE INCREASED. BY THE TIME RAIN DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (75-95% LIKELIHOOD) OF AT
LEAST ONE INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN AREAS OF TERRAIN, WITH ROUGHLY 15-35% CHANCES OF
TOTALS EXCEEDING THREE INCHES IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
VALLEY LOCALES WILL SEE RELATIVELY LOWER TOTALS, WITH 10-40%
CHANCES OF EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. -36
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING
BOUNDARY, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3000-3500 FT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING AT PASS-
LEVEL IN THE CASCADES. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE MUCH LOWER, SO FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIKELY (85-90%
CHANCE) TO REMAIN BELOW SIX INCHES. LINGERING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A DRY BREAK TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE MODESTLY OVERHEAD. A COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS NONETHELESS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK
AS CHANCES INCREASE FOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE REGION. -36
AVIATION
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN THROUGH TODAY. RESTRICTED VIS AND CIGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
ALONG THE COAST WITH RADAR AS OF 1130Z SAT SHOWING THE LEADING
EDGE OF RAIN SOME 30 MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO BEGIN
BY 14-15Z SAT AT KAST, THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND INLAND TO OTHER
TERMINALS BY 18-22Z SAT. MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE FAVORED ALONG THE
COAST, ALTHOUGH IFR/LIFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT MAY ALSO OCCUR,
ABOUT A 20% CHANCE. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS INITIALLY CONTINUE
INLAND AFTER THE ONSET OF RAINFALL, HOWEVER VIS/CIGS ARE FAVORED
(60-80% CHANCE) TO TREND TO MVFR BY 21Z SAT-03Z SUN. MEANWHILE,
15-25% CHANCES OF IFR CIGS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE TO
25-50% AFTER 06-09Z SUN. DEGRADED CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KT CONTINUE IN THE PORTLAND AREA, WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT AT KTTD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY. SOUTH FLOW IS ALREADY IN PLACE AT WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30 KT ALONG THE
COAST BEGINNING AFTER 15Z SAT. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
REACHING 35-40 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND STEADY RAIN ARRIVES
BY 17-19Z SAT. VIS/CIGS LIKELY TO DEGRADE TO MVFR LEVELS (60-70%
CHANCE) WHILE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT BY 23Z SAT-02Z
SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHILE CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS INCREASE FROM 10-20% AT THE ONSET OF
RAINFALL TO 25-35% AFTER 09Z SUN. -36
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND WHILE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE COAST, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS RISE TO 20-30 KT THIS
MORNING. CHANCES ARE HIGH (70-90%) FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AND
INTERMITTENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS OF 35-40 KT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
(10-40% CHANCE) FOR MORE FREQUENT OR PERSISTENT GUSTS. GALE-FORCE
GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND 20 NM FROM 6 AM UNTIL NOON
TODAY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO BRIEF AND ISOLATED TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING, THEREFORE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WATERS.
A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SWELL OF 8-10 FT AT 11-14
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS PEAK BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY AT 10-13 FT, AND WITH
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 15 FT, BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10
FT ON SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 8-10 FT THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE EASING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK. FURTHER ACTIVE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE TO END THE WORKWEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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