500
FXUS66 KPQR 072223
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER
AND SHOWERY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT PASS-LEVEL. A DRIER
PATTERN RETURNS MIDWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
-A WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AND
A LARGE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACNW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS
SET UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL, HELPING BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW OR AND SW WA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6000-8000
FEET THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SO SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CASCADE PEAKS DURING THIS TIME.
STILL EXPECTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND, A FEATURE WHICH TENDS TO
SLOW OR STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INLAND. A STALLED
BOUNDARY WOULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE DURATION OF HEAVIER RAIN RATES
AND OBSERVED RAINFALL, HOWEVER GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN HIGHER-END RAINFALL TOTALS
PRESENT ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR URBAN AND OTHER POOR-DRAINIAGE
FLOODING, AND MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING REMAINS VERY
UNLIKELY. SLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DELAY SNOW LEVELS FROM
DROPPING OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE SW WA CASCADES
SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 4500-5000 FEET AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS
ORIENTED NE-SW WHICH WILL LEAVE THE NW OR CASCADES SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5500-7000 FEET.
BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT, A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD, DISLODGING THE FRONT AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN GREATER THAN 80% FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN WA
WHICH COULD SEE A BIT OF RAINSHADOWING FROM THE COAST RANGE.
BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ALLONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SO GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH COMPARED
TO NORTH OF SALEM. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO INCREASE TOTALS
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WHICH HAVE A 10-40% CHANCE OF
REACHING THREE INCHES OR MORE. -19
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ALSO DROP BELOW PASS LEVEL, GENERALLY 3000-4000 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LOW (10-20%) OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DID COME UP SLIGHTLY ON THESE
PROBABILITIES SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AND WATCH FOR
CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES. SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND HEIGHTS INCREASE.
ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
SHOW SIGNS THAT THE DRY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION
DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIMES. -19
AVIATION
A INCOMING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST, WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS.
THE CURRENT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS INLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY, AFTERWARDS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z SUNDAY, THERE IS A
20-40% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, EXPECT LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT CONTINUE IN THE PORTLAND AREA,
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AT KTTD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS THE FRONT, THAT IS BRINGING THE
RAIN AND LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR UP TO 50 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE COAST AND KTTD ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND FROM THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR KTTD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS, EAST WINDS AND RAIN
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TOWARDS MVFR STARTING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY, WITH
THESE LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY. STARTING AROUND 05Z SUNDAY, THERE IS A 10-25%
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. /42
MARINE
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND, EXPECT SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE (60-90%) THROUGH AROUND 8PM TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 9 TO 14 FT AT 12 TO 14
SECONDS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND, LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY, BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE TRADITIONAL
WESTERLY PATTERN BY MONDAY. SEAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A FRESH WESTERLY SWELL RETURNS TO ALL WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SUITE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL
PROVIDE A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY, LOOKS TO BRING ELEVATED
WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS BUILDING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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