789
FXUS66 KPQR 080531 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
930 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER
AND SHOWERY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT PASS-LEVEL. A DRIER
PATTERN RETURNS MIDWEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A WET PATTERN IS SETTING UP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AND A LARGE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACNW.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL, HELPING
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW OR AND SW WA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6000-8000 FEET
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SO SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE CASCADE PEAKS
DURING THIS TIME.
STILL EXPECTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND, A FEATURE WHICH TENDS TO
SLOW OR STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INLAND. A STALLED
BOUNDARY WOULD LOCALLY INCREASE THE DURATION OF HEAVIER RAIN RATES
AND OBSERVED RAINFALL, HOWEVER GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN HIGHER-END RAINFALL TOTALS
PRESENT ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR URBAN AND OTHER POOR-DRAINIAGE
FLOODING, AND MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING REMAINS VERY
UNLIKELY. SLOWING THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO DELAY SNOW LEVELS FROM
DROPPING OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE SW WA CASCADES
SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 4500-5000 FEET AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS
ORIENTED NE-SW WHICH WILL LEAVE THE NW OR CASCADES SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5500-7000 FEET.
BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT, A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD, DISLODGING THE FRONT AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN GREATER THAN 80% FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN WA
WHICH COULD SEE A BIT OF RAINSHADOWING FROM THE COAST RANGE.
BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ALLONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR SO GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH COMPARED
TO NORTH OF SALEM. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO INCREASE TOTALS
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WHICH HAVE A 10-40% CHANCE OF
REACHING THREE INCHES OR MORE. -19
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ALSO DROP BELOW PASS LEVEL, GENERALLY 3000-4000 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LOW (10-20%) OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS DID COME UP SLIGHTLY ON THESE
PROBABILITIES SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AND WATCH FOR
CHANGES AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES. SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND HEIGHTS INCREASE.
ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS
SHOW SIGNS THAT THE DRY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION
DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIMES. -19
AVIATION
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER JET IS
STREAMING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OVER WESTERN OREGON PRODUCING MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN REDUCED VSBYS OF 2SM OR LESS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH 10Z
SUNDAY (60-70% CHANCE), BEFORE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO AROUND
30%. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS INLAND BECOMES MORE LIKELY
(30-50%) AROUND 10Z SUNDAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
STREAMS OVER THE AREA. CIGS AROUND FL015 EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z. THEN, PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CIGS INCREASE TO AROUND
40-50% BETWEEN 10Z-16Z SUNDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND A 70%
CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 22Z SUNDAY AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. /DH
MARINE
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND, EXPECT SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE (60-90%) THROUGH AROUND 8PM TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 9 TO 14 FT AT 12 TO 14
SECONDS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND, LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY, BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE TRADITIONAL
WESTERLY PATTERN BY MONDAY. SEAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL ALSO
REMAIN ELEVATED AS A FRESH WESTERLY SWELL RETURNS TO ALL WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SUITE OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL
PROVIDE A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY, LOOKS TO BRING ELEVATED
WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS BUILDING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page