290
FXUS66 KPQR 081125
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
325 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN OREGON
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEFORE MORE SHOWERY WEATHER WITH WELCOME CASCADE SNOW LINGERS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAIN STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL BETWEEN US-20 AND THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA
BORDER. TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE BULK OF NORTHWESTERN OREGON,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WHILE FAR
NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ARE DRY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
LARGELY MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO ASIDE FROM A MODEST NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5000
FT ACROSS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SOUTH TO THE MT HOOD AREA,
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5000-7000 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OREGON CASCADES, WITH RAIN THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
PASS-LEVEL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OUT OF
THE REGION, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO 3000-3500 FT WHILE ALSO
BRIEFLY REINVIGORATING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY DIMINISHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST, CHANCES FOR
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN INCREASE FROM 15% IN ASTORIA TO
50% NEAR TILLAMOOK TO 80% NEAR FLORENCE, WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF NEWPORT. INLAND ALONG I-5,
THE CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH INCREASE FROM 20% IN
KELSO/LONGVIEW TO 60% IN PORTLAND, 75% IN SALEM, AND 95% IN
EUGENE, WITH 20-50% CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH INCREASING
FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD. AS SNOW LEVELS FALL, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THE CASCADE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG
US-26 NEAR GOVERNMENT CAMP, LOWER PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
SUPPORT LESSER SNOWFALL, WITH ONLY A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING ONE
INCH OF SNOW. TO THE SOUTH AT SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES,
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER TOTALS, AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING FOUR INCHES OF
SNOW, AND ONLY A 20-25% CHANCE OF SEEING SIX INCHES. -36
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS STRONG
CONSENSUS THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAVORED TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY 15-25%. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES THEN
FAVOR A RETURN TO A COOLER, WETTER, AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DETAILS AND TIMING
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE REMAIN RELATIVELY LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. -36
AVIATION
MIXED AND VARIABLE FLYING CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS A
COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN OREGON. THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE LARGELY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF KSLE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KTMK TO KSPB. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AT MOST AREA TERMINALS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND 30-50% CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS, BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, BUT TIMING OF TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS LOW CONFIDENCE. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT (KAST, KKLS),
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOWER, BUT FOG/MIST MAY RESTRICT VIS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS
CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
FAVORED (50-60% CHANCE) TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15-16Z SUN, THEN
MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE ROUGHLY EQUALLY LIKELY (40-50% CHANCE OF EACH)
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS LINGER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UNRESTRICTED VIS IS MOST LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, HOWEVER BRIEF REDUCTIONS AS SHOWERS PASS
OVER THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED. TIMING OF IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS
IS LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF MVFR VIS AT ANY TIME
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. WINDS AROUND 5 KT WITH VARYING DIRECTION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. -36
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY
FALLEN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS HAS THEREFORE
BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS OF 7-9 FT AT 12 SECONDS WITH VARIABLE WINDS
NEAR 5 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT A 5-10% CHANCE
SEAS OCCASIONALLY RISE ABOVE 10 FT MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. WHEN THE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST FINALLY EXITS SOUTHWARD, A WESTERLY SWELL
WILL AGAIN RISE TO 10-11 FT AT 12-14 SECONDS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, AND FROM 1 AM MONDAY THROUGH 1 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR. EBB CURRENTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA ARE FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH MIDWEEK, GENERALLY 1-4 KT AT PEAK TIDE, BUT COULD
STILL ACT TO STEEPEN SEAS LOCALLY AT THE BAR.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION MIDWEEK, WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE AND IMPACTFUL MARINE
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGHING IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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