285
FXUS66 KPQR 081701 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
901 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY, BEFORE MORE SHOWERY WEATHER WITH WELCOME CASCADE SNOW
LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAIN STALLED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL BETWEEN US-20 AND THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA
BORDER. TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE BULK OF NORTHWESTERN OREGON,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WHILE FAR
NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON ARE DRY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
LARGELY MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO ASIDE FROM A MODEST NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5000
FT ACROSS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES SOUTH TO THE MT HOOD AREA,
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5000-7000 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OREGON CASCADES, WITH RAIN THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
PASS-LEVEL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED FRONT SOUTH OUT OF
THE REGION, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO 3000-3500 FT WHILE ALSO
BRIEFLY REINVIGORATING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY DIMINISHES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG THE COAST, CHANCES FOR
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN INCREASE FROM 15% IN ASTORIA TO
50% NEAR TILLAMOOK TO 80% NEAR FLORENCE, WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN SOUTH OF NEWPORT. INLAND ALONG I-5,
THE CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH INCREASE FROM 20% IN
KELSO/LONGVIEW TO 60% IN PORTLAND, 75% IN SALEM, AND 95% IN
EUGENE, WITH 20-50% CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH INCREASING
FROM SALEM SOUTHWARD. AS SNOW LEVELS FALL, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THE CASCADE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG
US-26 NEAR GOVERNMENT CAMP, LOWER PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
SUPPORT LESSER SNOWFALL, WITH ONLY A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING ONE
INCH OF SNOW. TO THE SOUTH AT SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES,
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER TOTALS, AND A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING FOUR INCHES OF
SNOW, AND ONLY A 20-25% CHANCE OF SEEING SIX INCHES. -36
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS STRONG
CONSENSUS THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAVORED TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY 15-25%. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES THEN
FAVOR A RETURN TO A COOLER, WETTER, AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DETAILS AND TIMING
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE REMAIN RELATIVELY LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. -36
AVIATION
CURRENTLY, THERE ARE MIXED AND VARIABLE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIR SPACE, THANKS TO A STALLED/SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OREGON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TREND MORE
TOWARDS MVFR/IFR AS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH
OF KKLS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND SOUTH OF KAST FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT (KAST, KKLS), CHANCES
FOR RAIN ARE LOWER, BUT FOG/MIST MAY RESTRICT VIS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OVERALL, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A 15-20% CHANCE FOR
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS WELL.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TOWARDS THE VERY END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE STALLED FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DOMINANT AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. /42
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY
FALLEN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED. SEAS OF 7-9 FT AT 12 SECONDS WITH
VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
A 5-10% CHANCE SEAS OCCASIONALLY RISE ABOVE 10 FT MAY POSE A
MARGINAL HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. WHEN THE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST FINALLY EXITS SOUTHWARD,
A WESTERLY SWELL WILL AGAIN RISE TO 10-11 FT AT 12-14 SECONDS
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TODAY THROUGH 4 AM
TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND FROM 1 AM MONDAY THROUGH
1 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. EBB CURRENTS AT THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA ARE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MIDWEEK, GENERALLY
1-4 KT AT PEAK TIDE, BUT COULD STILL ACT TO STEEPEN SEAS
LOCALLY AT THE BAR.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION MIDWEEK, WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE AND IMPACTFUL MARINE
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGHING IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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