051
FXUS66 KPQR 090447 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT CONSISTENT LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
EXACT DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STALLED BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OR AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE
WEST. THIS IS SUPPORTING CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF NW
OR AND SW WA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ASTORIA AND PACIFIC
COUNTY AREAS WHICH REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
SLOWLY BUILDING NORTHWEST TOWARD ASTORIA AND PACIFIC COUNTY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS OVER THE SW WA
CASCADES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 4500 FEET BUT REMAIN AROUND
5000-6000 FEET ACROSS THE NW OR CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY DROP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO BETWEEN
3000-4000 FEET AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EAST AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD, TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CENTRAL OR COAST AND COAST RANGE CAN
EXPECT AROUND 0.10-0.25 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY, HIGHER AMOUNTS
FOR THE NORTH OR COAST AND COAST RANGE AROUND 0.25-0.40 INCHES.
THERE IS A LOW ~15% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE. THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS SHOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER 0.25-0.50 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT GREATER
ELEVATIONS, THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. THIS WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO PASS LEVEL BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. GOVERNMENT CAMP HAS A 75% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST
ONE INCH AND A 25% CHANCE OF SEEING 3 INCHES OR MORE. SANTIAM
AND WILLAMETTE PASSES TO THE SOUTH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING 3 INCHES AT 60-70% BUT ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE OF 6 INCHES
OR MORE. -19
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS
THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FAVORED TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS IN LANE AND LINN COUNTIES, BUT CHANCES
ARE ONLY 15-25%. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD
FAVOR A RETURN TO A COOLER, WETTER, AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DETAILS AND TIMING
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE REMAIN RELATIVELY LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. -19/36
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE MAIN FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z MONDAY. BY 17-18Z
MONDAY, PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR VFR AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (40-50% CHANCE)
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z MONDAY. BY 20Z MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THERE IS AN 80-90% CHANCE FOR VFR. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 4-6 KT EXPECTED. /DH
MARINE
CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT AT 11
TO 14 SECONDS WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KT. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OREGON, WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, A
FRESH WESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TOWARDS 9 TO 11
FT AT 12 TO 14 SECONDS. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS WILL
BE AROUND 10 FT, AND THAT EBB CURRENTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER ARE AROUND 1-4 KT AT PEAK TIDE, THIS COULD RESULT
IN CONDITIONS NEAR THE BAR TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
THEREFORE, WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM
MONDAY THROUGH 1 AM TUESDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD, TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ELEVATED SEAS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST, WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS REMAIN RATHER BROAD THUS KEEPING
OVERALL CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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