526
FXUS66 KPQR 091803 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1003 AM PST MON FEB 9 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPORTS A DRYING TREND. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AND ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES WHILE THESE
SHOWERS PERSIST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND A RECENTLY DEPARTED
COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 3500 FT,
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT AND ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES TODAY WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE 0.25 INCHES OR
LESS, WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-26
UNLIKELY (LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE) TO SEE EVEN 0.10 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN. AT PASS-LEVEL IN THE CASCADES, ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL THEN FAVOR A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. -36
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
TAKES ITS PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MARK THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WITH RAIN RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING
TO THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGHING THEN IN PLACE OVERHEAD, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DETAILS OF
THE FLOW REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. COOLER AIR WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH FAVORS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR MORE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT PASS-LEVEL IN THE CASCADES, AS WELL AS
POTENTIALLY TO ELEVATIONS BELOW 3000 FT IN THE FOOTHILLS. -36
AVIATION
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ASIDE
FROM BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
AT THIS POINT, INLAND TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY STAYING VFR EVEN
WITH PASSING SHOWERS, HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS
00Z TUESDAY. BY 06Z TUESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF
NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AT KTTD.
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT,
STRONGEST AT KEUG WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 10 KT.
WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS, HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID, AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE). PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE HIGHEST
BETWEEN 06-11Z TUESDAY WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKEST. CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
THE TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE 18Z TAFS,
EXCEPT AT KHIO WHERE FOG APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 00-01Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
FOG BETWEEN 06-11Z TUESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
THEREAFTER, WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE FOG LATER TUESDAY MORNING.
-23
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OF SEAS AROUND 9-10
FT AT 12-14 SECONDS SUPPORT A CONTINUED HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT AS
THE WESTERLY SWELL PEAKS AROUND 10 FT TODAY BEFORE EASING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
4 AM PST TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, HOWEVER NEARSHORE
ZONES (THOSE WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST) ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
EARLY HAZARD CANCELLATIONS AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK EBB CURRENTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER OF 1-4 KT AT PEAK TIDE COINCIDENT WITH THESE MARGINALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS ALSO MERIT CONTINUATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH 1 AM PST TUESDAY.
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MIDWEEK WILL RETURN TRANQUIL WEATHER
AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 5-8 FT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE AND
IMPACTFUL WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEAS OF 10-15 FT RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY BRING REPEATED CHANCES OF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS,
AND ELEVATED SEAS, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, THE CHANCES OF HAZARDOUS
GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY 10-30% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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