519
FXUS66 KPQR 092226
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
226 PM PST MON FEB 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH FOG/FROST CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS GENERALLY TREND COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT SET-UP.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS POSITIVE VORTICITY
LINGERS ALOFT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
THIS SHORTWAVE FURTHER EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-
BUILDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY, RETURNING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LINN AND LANE COUNTY CASCADES
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
AND FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR LOWLAND VALLEYS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FOG AND/OR FROST WOULD BE MORE PATCHY TONIGHT AS THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
FROST DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY THAN FOG TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT AS EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BRINGS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
INTERIOR VALLEYS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR
MORNING LOWS OF 32 DEGREES F OR LOWER EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY-
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE TUALATIN VALLEY,
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. -10
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
U.S. AN INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MARK THIS PATTERN SHIFT WITH
RAIN RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING TO THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST, HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGHING. IN GENERAL, IT APPEARS
CONDITIONS WILL TREND WETTER AND COOLER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS
BACK DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT, RETURNING SNOW THROUGH THE CASCADE
PASSES. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 35-55% CHANCE FOR 12+ INCHES OF SNOW
OR GREATER THROUGH THE PASSES IN A 72 HOUR PERIOD FROM 4 AM
SATURDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THROUGH
SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES. THERE IS ALSO A 60-80% CHANCE
THAT SNOW LEVELS FALL BELOW 2000 FT, WHICH WOULD BRING SNOW
CHANCES DOWN TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE THIS
WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS LOWLAND VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME IF THE
TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH. SINCE THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH MOISTURE,
WE COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A 1-5% CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCH OF
SNOW OR MORE ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST.
FORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL
ENOUGH DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT IF WE DID SEE SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY MELT UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND AND
STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE LOWLANDS, IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL WARM-UP WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THIS ALSO DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FREEZING RAIN PATTERN, SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. -10/36
AVIATION
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF KEUG, THROUGH 00-03Z
TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS, ALBEIT
WITH VFR CIGS OCCURRING THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME AT MOST
TERMINALS.
BY 06Z TUESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHWEST
OR AND SOUTHWEST WA AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AT KTTD. EXPECT
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT,
STRONGEST AT KEUG WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 10 KT.
WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS, HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID, AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE). PROBABILITIES FOR
FOG ARE HIGHEST BETWEEN 06-11Z TUESDAY WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
LESS PREVALENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKEST. CONFIDENCE IN
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT
IN THE 18Z TAFS, EXCEPT AT KHIO WHERE FOG APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
00-03Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF FOG BETWEEN 06-11Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THEREAFTER ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FOG LATER TUESDAY MORNING.
-23
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, THROUGH 1 AM
PST TUESDAY. THIS IS FOR CONTINUED SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT AT 13
SECONDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20 KT WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTHWARD UP THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT THIS
TO BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE INNER WATERS AND UP TO
25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH IS A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
UPDATES. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SECOND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS TO COVER THE THREAT OF INCREASING
WINDS. IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE INNER WATERS, HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
BE CLOSE AND FUTURE HAZARD UPDATES MAY WARRANT AN EXPANSION TO
INCLUDE THE INNER WATERS. DESPITE THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW 10 FT DURING THAT
TIME.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE
AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY BRING REPEATED CHANCES OF
RAIN AND ELEVATED SEAS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR ABNORMALLY STRONG
WINDS APPEARS LOW (CHANCES FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ONLY PEAK
AROUND 5-15% FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND), CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS SEAS
WILL PEAK AROUND 14-16 FT FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. THERE IS A 1-10% CHANCES SEAS WILL
PEAK AS HIGH AS 16-19 FT. -23
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES IS LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM
INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR
DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING. KEEP CHILDREN AND
PETS AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE. KEEP OFF OF JETTIES, ROCKS AND
LOGS NEAR THE SURF ZONE. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE SWEPT INTO THE SEA
DO NOT SWIM IN AFTER THEM. CALL 911 AND KEEP AN EYE ON THEM
UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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