964
FXUS66 KPQR 101135
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
335 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR FOG AND FROST IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
CURRENTLY STRADDLES THE AREA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT
THIS THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS DONE LITTLE TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG WITHIN INLAND VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD
OBSERVATIONS OF SURFACE VISIBILITY OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS HAS NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE COWLITZ, LOWER
COLUMBIA, AND WILLAMETTE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE NEIGHBORING
TUALATIN VALLEY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT
UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED, AND COMMUTERS SHOULD EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER
RAPIDLY CHANGING ROADWAY VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. LOCALES THAT
ARE PARTICULARLY SHELTERED FROM WINDS AS WELL AS THOSE NEAR
WATERWAYS INCLUDING LAKES AND RIVERS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, WHILE THOSE MORE EXPOSED TO WIND MAY
INSTEAD SEE LOW OVERCAST SKIES WITH ONLY HILLTOPS EXPERIENCING
REDUCED VISIBILITY. RISING EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
GORGE AND REACHING INTO THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO IN RESPONSE
TO A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL LIMIT
THE COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF DENSE FOG, INSTEAD FAVORING A
LOW OVERCAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, HOWEVER COMMUTERS MAY STILL
ENCOUNTER AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY.
DRY WEATHER WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE LOW
(10-25%) CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
REACHING INTO THE LINN AND LANE COUNTY CASCADES ON THE VERY
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN CALIFORNIA. LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE FOG AND/OR FROST DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN INLAND VALLEYS, WITH COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S FAVORING FROST OVER FOG FOR MOST. -36
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LATE IN THE WEEK,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONFIDENT THAT RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MARK THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WITH RAIN RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT TO
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THEN LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER, WITH A
CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING A SCENARIO WHERE THE UPPER
TROUGH PINCHES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRIER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, THOSE MEMBERS STILL SUGGEST INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS BACK DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT, ALLOWING FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT THE CASCADE PASSES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN
ALOFT THOUGH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
THERE ARE 45-55% CHANCES OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FROM 4 AM
SATURDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY, AND 10-25% CHANCES OF ONE FOOT
OR MORE SNOW OVER THE SAME PERIOD. THERE IS ADDITIONALLY A
10-25% CHANCE THAT SNOW LEVELS FALL BELOW 1000 FT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST HILLS. WHILE
SNOW REACHING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT (LESS
THAN A 10% CHANCE), MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. -10/36
AVIATION
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
YIELDED IFR FLYING CONDITIONS AT MANY AREA TERMINALS WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE, GENERALLY 16-18Z TUE. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT IFR VIS IS AT TERMINALS EAST OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE IN
THE PORTLAND AREA AND ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE
MARGINALLY HIGHER WINDS AND RESULTANT SURFACE MIXING HAVE
IMPROVED SURFACE VIS AS EARLIER FOG LIFTS TO IFR CIGS AND, IN
SOME CASES, SKIES TREND CLEARER.
AFTER CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BENEATH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SEE EAST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT DEVELOP AT KTTD, AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
RECURRENCE OF FOG TONIGHT AS COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY INSTEAD
FAVOR FROST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG OR LOW STRATUS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE, THEN RAPIDLY CLEAR
TO VFR CONDITIONS BENEATH SCT HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 15-17Z TUE.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE TO
AROUND 5 KT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT. -36
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT SEAS
CONTINUING TO EASE BELOW 10 FT; SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
HAVE THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST. AS WINDS RISE TO 15-25 KT THROUGH TODAY,
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, WITH
FURTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
(BEYOND 10 NM) FROM CAPE FALCON SOUTH TO FLORENCE FROM 10 AM
PST TODAY THROUGH 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY, AND FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
SOUTH TO CAPE FALCON FROM 4 PM PST TODAY THROUGH 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, WINDS AND GUSTS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
(WITHIN 10 NM) LOOK TO REMAIN AT 15-20 KT OR LESS, HOWEVER ANY
INCREASE IN FORECAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN ADVISORIES BEING
EXPANDED EASTWARD TO THE COAST. AS THERMAL TROUGHING WEAKENS ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL EASE BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS.
MEANWHILE, A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE FROM 8-9 FT TODAY TO 6-7 FT ON THURSDAY.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE
AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY BRING REPEATED CHANCES OF
RAIN AND ELEVATED SEAS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR ABNORMALLY STRONG
WINDS APPEARS LOW (CHANCES FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ONLY PEAK
AROUND 5-15% FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND), CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, PEAKING AROUND 14-16 FT FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. THERE
IS A 15-25% CHANCE SEAS WILL INSTEAD PEAK ABOVE 16 FT. -36/23
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES IS LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM
INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR
DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING. KEEP CHILDREN AND
PETS AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE. KEEP OFF OF JETTIES, ROCKS AND
LOGS NEAR THE SURF ZONE. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE SWEPT INTO THE SEA
DO NOT SWIM IN AFTER THEM. CALL 911 AND KEEP AN EYE ON THEM
UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ108-109-
114>118.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR WAZ204-205.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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