083
FXUS66 KPQR 251756 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
956 AM PST WED FEB 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES PRIMARILY PINNED ACROSS THE
COAST, COAST RANGE, AND THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
RAIN CHANCES THEN SHIFT TO CENTRAL OREGON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRUSHES
THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE ON THE EXACT
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATIION. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER THEN
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN TYPICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE HORIZON.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
WE'VE TRANSITIONED TO A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
WHICH IMPACTED THE AREA HAS LONG DEPARTED THE REGION. PARTIAL
CLEARING FORM THE INLAND VALLEYS TO THE COAST IN ADDITION TO
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG INTO THE SUNRISE HOURS TODAY, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE (VISIBILITY <0.25 MILE). KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN YOU EMBARK ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY AS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
KEEPS ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY PINNED NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHERN OREGON/WASHINGTON INTO THE TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. ALL IN ALL, MUCH CALMER AND QUIETER
WEATHER COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICT THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING ZONAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY, FAR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND
SW WASHINGTON. LIMITED ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE PACNW AS WELL. THIS COOLER
AIRMASS ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS LEADS TO COLDER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS, AND A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR THE SW WASHINGTON LOWLANDS NORTH OF KALAMA (70-90% CHANCE TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING NEAR BATTLE GROUND/YACOLT). HOWEVER, IF
SKIES DON'T CLEAR AS EXPECTED, LOCATIONS WITH REMAINING CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT COOL QUITE AS MUCH AS IN THE FORECAST. IT'S WORTH
NOTING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOWER ABOVE
700-1500FT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT IMPACTS
APPEAR EXTREMELY LIMITED.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE SUNDAY, PRIMARILY IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES/PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED LOW, THE REMNANT OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH HELPED STEER THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVERHEAD
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS, PROGRESSES WESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR NORTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WILL OCCUR. A TRACK FURTHER NORTH WOULD
YIELD BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LATEST FORECASTS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IN OREGON. ADDITIONALLY, PROBABILITIES FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE, MAINLY AROUND 30-60%, DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER BEING
EJECTED NORTHWARD. A BIT MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK THAN
EXPECTED WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO
CLOUD COVER, BUT A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK COULD KEEP THE AREA FROM
BEING IMPACTED BY THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER- LEVEL LOW AND ALLOW FOR THE JET STREAM TO DIP INTO OREGON
AND BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY, THE CLOSED LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE (80-90%) OF
DRY WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN APPEARS
RATHER PROGRESSIVE (I.E. THE COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER WON'T LAST
FOREVER) WITH NEARLY 50-60% OF THE ENSEMBLE SPACE DEPICTING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTRODUCING BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. -99/03
AVIATION
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
INLAND TERMINALS AND VFR ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS BY 20-21Z WEDNESDAY. INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR INLAND TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH LIKELY MORE PATCHY
AND LESS WIDESPREAD. WITH FORECASTED LIGHT WINDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 06-12Z
THURSDAY. FOR COAST TERMINALS, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS (MOSTLY VIS) AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENTLY LIFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO LIFT AND THE FOG CLEAR BY 19-21Z WEDNESDAY.
AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. BY 06-12Z THURSDAY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOGGY CONDITIONS (15-25% CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS). ~12
MARINE
WITH OUR PREVIOUS WEATHER DISTURBANCE NOW WELL OFF TO
THE EAST BOTH SEAS AND WINDS HAVE CALMED WITH BOUY OBSERVATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FT AT 9 SECONDS
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS UNDER 15-20 KNOTS. HEADED THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH SEAS REMAIN BELOW
8 FT WITH WIND GUSTS HOLDING BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS (HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON). LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MIXED
BAG OF SWELLS WITH A PRIMARY NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AND A SOUTHERLY
FRESH SWELL THAT THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A TRUE SECONDARY SWELL.
WHILE A COMPLICATED SWELL ORGANIZATION, WE'LL SEE WIDESPREAD SEAS
RISE TO ~10 FT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SEA STATE DIMINISHES
AGAIN BACK INTO THE 5-7FT RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. -99/27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ108-109-111-112.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR WAZ204>207.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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