446
FXUS66 KPQR 260545 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 PM PST WED FEB 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES PRIMARILY PINNED ACROSS THE
COAST, COAST RANGE, AND THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
FAR NORTHERN OREGON. RAIN CHANCES THEN SHIFT TO CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BRUSHES THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE ON THE EXACT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.
COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE
HORIZON.
DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS MORNING FOG
AND STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE REGION. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH SW WA AND FAR N OR THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
TERRAIN, THOUGH WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATION. COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA HAS FUNNELED INTO SW WA AND N OR TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR THE LOWLANDS,
BUT THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE.
THERE'S A 60-90% CHANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING BY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS,
THOUGH LOCATIONS THAT SEE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL QUITE SO LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE OVERNIGHT TO
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES OFF OF THE
TERRAIN AND OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX, ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 700-1500 FEET.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED (LESS THAN 5% CHANCE). FOG
ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY END UP MORE FROSTY THAN FOGGY.
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY, SHOWER
CHANCES WITH LIMITED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING GENERALLY FOR SW WA AND THE FAR N OR COAST, COAST RANGE,
AND CASCADES. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, FOGGY AND/OR
FROSTY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONDITIONS, AND OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SYNC WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NW OR DEPENDENT ON
THE NORTH/SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW. IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE CA/OR BORDER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS THE SALEM AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN LANE COUNTY. HOWEVER, IF IT APPROACHES
THE COAST CLOSER TO CENTRAL CA, THEN OUR FORECAST AREA COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, MORE THAN
HALF INDICATE THE LOW WILL BE NORTH ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN LANE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
CASCADES. EITHER WAY, NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE FARTHER NORTH IT
TRACKS, MORE CLOUDS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO N OR AND SW WASHINGTON,
LIMITING DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME COOLING. A SOUTHERN TRACK
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES, WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING CONTINUE DROPPING IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, NOW AROUND
20-40% THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR UP TO 50-60% FOR THE
SW WA LOWLANDS AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
TRANSIENT RIDGING RETURNS TO THE PACNW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. BY
TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THESE WILL BE GREAT DAYS TO SQUEEZE IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES BEFORE RAIN RETURNS WITH A BENIGN SPRINGTIME WEATHER
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. -03
AVIATION
CURRENTLY VFR OVER THE AREA WITH CALM WINDS. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 10-12Z THURSDAY, AFTER WHICH
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD DUE TO FROST DEVELOPMENT INSTEAD OF
FOG IN AREAS THAT DIP TO AROUND 32 TO 35 DEGREES OR COLDER.
CHANCES FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 25-35% FOR
INLAND TERMINALS, 5% AT KAST, AND 15% AT KONP. FOR NOW, HAVE
HINTED AT POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z TAFS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE FOG OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY
APPROXIMATELY 18Z THURSDAY AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FROM 12 TO 18Z
THURSDAY WHEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 35% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS. FOR NOW, HAVE HINTED AT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z TAFS. EVEN IF FOG DOES FORM, EXPECT FOG TO
LIFT BY 18Z THURSDAY AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. -23
MARINE
CALM SEAS AND WINDS, WITH BOUY OBSERVATIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6 FT AT 9 TO 10
SECONDS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. HEADED INTO THURSDAY,
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT WITH WIND GUSTS HOLDING BETWEEN 10 TO
20 KNOTS (HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON).
LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MIXED BAG OF SWELLS WITH A PRIMARY
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AND A SOUTHERLY FRESH SWELL, WITH PRIMARILY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEAS NEAR 10 FT ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE SEAS EASE BACK DOWN AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO
THE WORK WEEK, LOWERING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT. ~12
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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