515
FXUS66 KPQR 261151
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PST THU FEB 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW LARGELY NON-IMPACTFUL FEATURES WORTH
NOTING. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES (20-45%)
REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH OREGON COAST,
COAST RANGE, AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO
CENTRAL OREGON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRUSHES THE REGION - MODERATE
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLD GENERALLY SALEM SOUTHWARD.
COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT
ONLY TEMPORARILY; IT IS LATE FEB/EARLY MARCH AFTER ALL.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CURRENT RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND UNLIKE AT THIS POINT LAST NIGHT, FOG HAS BEEN
RATHER SLOW TO DEVELOP LIKELY DUE A SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. STILL, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS AROUND SUNRISE. GOING THROUGH
TODAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL
KEEPING ANY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES LIMITED TO SW WA, THE FAR N OR
COAST, N COAST RANGE/WILLAPA HILLS, AND WA CASCADES. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND FAIRLY
CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
50S FOR THE LOWLANDS, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOGGY AND/OR FROSTY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN SYNC WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. EVEN BEING ~3 DAYS OUT THERE STILL
REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT NW OR DEPENDENT ON THE NORTH/SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW.
BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE, IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE CA/OR BORDER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS THE SALEM TO THE SOUTH PORTLAND METRO AREA WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN LANE COUNTY. HOWEVER,
IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST CLOSER TO CENTRAL CA, THEN OUR
FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY. LOOKING AT ENTIRE
NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE SPACE, AROUND 50-60% INDICATE THE LOW WILL
BE NORTH ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF
SALEM WITH ONLY ~20% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP RAIN JUST LANE
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE REMAINING 20-30% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. IN ANY CASE, NOT ANTICIPATING IMPACTS
FROM ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVEL AROUND
6000FT KEEP ANY PASS SNOWFALL CONCERNS AT BAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE
FARTHER NORTH IT TRACKS, MORE CLOUDS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO N OR
AND SW WASHINGTON, LIMITING DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME
COOLING. A SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES, WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING CONTINUE DROPPING IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS, NOW AROUND 10-30% THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
EXCEPT FOR UP TO 30-60% FOR THE SW WA LOWLANDS AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.
TRANSIENT RIDGING LIKELY (85-95%) RETURNS TO THE PACNW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF COMPLETELY DRY
WEATHER AND INCREASING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE
WILL BE GREAT DAYS TO SQUEEZE IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BEFORE RAIN
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS MID-WEEK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BUT THE LATEST IT
WOULD POTENTIAL ARRIVE IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON - MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE (70-75%) FAVORS THE DRY WEATHER COMING TO AN END
TUESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. -99/03
AVIATION
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THESE DEGRADED
CONDITIONS IS LESS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS ALL
THANKS TO A MIX OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER TOWARDS THE PORTLAND METRO OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE OR WILL SOON LEAD TO LOW
CIGS/VIS. FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY
APPROXIMATELY 17-18Z THURSDAY AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY LESS THAN
5-10 KNOTS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE
APPROACHING SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AND WHILE THERE WAS HOPE THE
CLOUD DECK AT 4-4.5FT WOULD PREVENT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS, KVUO
HAS DROP TO LIFR CIGS THE PAST FEW HOURS (10-11Z) WITH SCT004
BEING REPORTED AT PDX AS OF 11Z AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND,
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THE 400FT CLOUD BASE WILL FILL
IN ENOUGH BY SUNRISE LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LIFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL. EXPECT ANY REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO
CLEAR NEAR 17-18Z FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. -99
MARINE
OVERALL FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY AS SEAS HOLD AROUND 4 TO 7 FT. WHILE A LINGERING
SOUTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY DISSIPATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL
LIKELY SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A WNW/NW SWELL ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PUSHING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP NEAR 8 TO 10 FT. THIS'LL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY NNE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-28 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS POINT SEAS AND WINDS EASE BACK DOWN TO AROUND 5
TO 7 FT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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