019
FXUS66 KPQR 262211
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
211 PM PST THU FEB 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW LARGELY NON-IMPACTFUL FEATURES WORTH
NOTING. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES (20-45%)
REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. OUR FOCUS
SHIFTS TO CENTRAL OREGON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRUSHES THE REGION.
THERE'S MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLD
GENERALLY TO SALEM SOUTHWARD. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER THEN
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT ONLY TEMPORARILY AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS A THIN CIRRUS
DECK STREAMING OVER NW OR AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SW
WA. GOING THROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL KEEPING ANY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES LIMITED TO
SW WA. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS,
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOGGY AND/OR FROSTY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN SYNC WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. THERE STILL REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NW OR DEPENDENT
ON THE NORTH/SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW. IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE CA/OR BORDER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS THE SALEM AREA, AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTH
PORTLAND METRO AREA, WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN LANE
COUNTY. HOWEVER, IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST CLOSER TO CENTRAL
CA, THEN OUR FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY. LOOKING
AT THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS, EPS AND GEPS, ONLY
AROUND 15-30% OF MEMBERS INDICATE THE LOW WILL BE NORTH ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF SALEM WITH
AROUND 20-30% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP RAIN JUST LANE COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THE REMAINING 40-50% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN- BETWEEN. IN ANY CASE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH RAIN
AND THEREFORE IMPACTS FROM ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM,
AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FT WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL CONCERNS
AT CASCADE PASSES AT BAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL ALSO BE
IMPACTED BY THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE FARTHER NORTH IT TRACKS,
MORE CLOUDS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO N OR AND SW WASHINGTON,
LIMITING DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME COOLING. A SOUTHERN TRACK
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES, WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
TRANSIENT RIDGING RETURNS TO THE PACNW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
LEADING TO A RETURN OF COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE WILL BE GREAT DAYS TO
SQUEEZE IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BEFORE RAIN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACNW. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN, BUT MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (~75%) FAVORS THE DRY WEATHER COMING TO AN
END BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT,
NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SNOW
COULD RETURN TO THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND
3500-4500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES A
40-60% CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM 4
AM TUESDAY THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY, WHERE MOST SNOW WOULD FALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. -03/99
AVIATION
AS OF 22Z THURSDAY, HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE AIRSPACE (MOSTLY SOUTH OF KUAO), WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRIDAY.
TONIGHT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS AROUND KSLE
AND KEUG AFTER 09Z FRIDAY (40-50% CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS).
FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06-09Z FRIDAY (HIGHEST CHANCES AT KAST).
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5-10 KNOTS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENTLY VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
THEN A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS JUST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY (15-25%
CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS). WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOT
BITING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
~12
MARINE
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY, WITH SEAS AROUND 4 TO 7 FT. AS THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WEAKENS
INTO FRIDAY, A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT AT 15
SECONDS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
PUSHING SEAS TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FT. AT THE SAME TIME, NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BRING GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AS A RESULT, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS OF CAPE
FALCON SOUTHWARD. SEAS AND WINDS WILL EASE BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 7 FT
BY SUNDAY. OVERALL SEAS AND WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
~12
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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