963
FXUS66 KPQR 270539 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 PM PST THU FEB 26 2026
UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS. UPDATED PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW LARGELY NON-IMPACTFUL FEATURES WORTH
NOTING. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES (20-45%)
REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. OUR FOCUS
SHIFTS TO CENTRAL OREGON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRUSHES THE REGION.
THERE'S MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLD
GENERALLY TO SALEM SOUTHWARD. COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER THEN
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT ONLY TEMPORARILY AS A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS A THIN CIRRUS
DECK STREAMING OVER NW OR AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SW
WA. GOING THROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL KEEPING ANY LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES LIMITED TO
SW WA. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS STAY DRY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS,
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOGGY AND/OR FROSTY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN SYNC WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. THERE STILL REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NW OR DEPENDENT
ON THE NORTH/SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW. IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST
CLOSER TO THE CA/OR BORDER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD SPREAD
AS FAR NORTH AS THE SALEM AREA, AND POSSIBLY TO THE SOUTH
PORTLAND METRO AREA, WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN LANE
COUNTY. HOWEVER, IF IT APPROACHES THE COAST CLOSER TO CENTRAL
CA, THEN OUR FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY. LOOKING
AT THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS, EPS AND GEPS, ONLY
AROUND 15-30% OF MEMBERS INDICATE THE LOW WILL BE NORTH ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF SALEM WITH
AROUND 20-30% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP RAIN JUST LANE COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THE REMAINING 40-50% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SOMEWHERE IN- BETWEEN. IN ANY CASE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH RAIN
AND THEREFORE IMPACTS FROM ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM,
AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FT WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL CONCERNS
AT CASCADE PASSES AT BAY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL ALSO BE
IMPACTED BY THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE FARTHER NORTH IT TRACKS,
MORE CLOUDS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO N OR AND SW WASHINGTON,
LIMITING DAYTIME WARMING AND NIGHTTIME COOLING. A SOUTHERN TRACK
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES, WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
TRANSIENT RIDGING RETURNS TO THE PACNW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
LEADING TO A RETURN OF COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THESE WILL BE GREAT DAYS TO
SQUEEZE IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES BEFORE RAIN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACNW. SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN, BUT MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (~75%) FAVORS THE DRY WEATHER COMING TO AN
END BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT,
NO WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SNOW
COULD RETURN TO THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND
3500-4500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES A
40-60% CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM 4
AM TUESDAY THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY, WHERE MOST SNOW WOULD FALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. -03/99
AVIATION
CALM WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND
20-25 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST EXCEPTION IS AT KAST WHERE CIGS WILL MOST
LIKELY LOWER FROM 3500 FEET TO HIGH-END MVFR THRESHOLDS AROUND
3000 FEET BY APPROXIMATELY 09-10Z FRIDAY (60-80% CHANCE) BEFORE
LIFTING BACK TO VFR TOWARDS 20Z FRIDAY. THE SECOND EXCEPTION IS
BETWEEN 11-18Z FRIDAY WHEN PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY REDEVELOP AT OR
NEAR SOME INLAND TERMINALS, SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS KPDX, KUAO, KSLE AND KEUG HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING THAT TIME. THESE TERMINALS
HAVE AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR SURFACE VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 4
SM BY SUNRISE, AND A 30-40% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES OF 1 SM OR
LOWER. WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE SIMILAR AT KHIO, SUSPECT FROST WILL
BE FAVORED OVER FOG, WHICH IS WHAT WAS OBSERVED AT KHIO THURSDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER AT KTTD AT AROUND 20%, WHERE
FROST IS ALSO FAVORED OVER FOG. ONGOING HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END
VFR CIGS AT KAST SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THAT TERMINAL.
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS AND AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT KONP. WHETHER FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP OR NOT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT.
THAT SAID, THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BETWEEN 12-15Z FRIDAY
WHEN GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT OR NEAR THE
TERMINAL. THIS IS WHEN THERE IS A 40-45% CHANCE FOR SURFACE
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 4 SM AND A 35% CHANCE FOR SURFACE
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1 SM. -23
MARINE
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH SEAS AROUND 6 TO 8 FT. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 9-10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EITHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AROUND 8-9 FT AT 14-15
SECONDS. THEREFORE, A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS TO COVER THAT TIMEFRAME.
ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE,
LIKELY PEAKING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 15-20 KT
OVER THE INNER WATERS. AS A RESULT, MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON BEYOND 20-30 NM
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL EASE ON SUNDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY,
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 7 FT. SEAS AND
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE EVEN MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ271>273.
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