194
FXUS66 KPQR 280515 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
915 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION, AND HAZARDS.
SYNOPSIS
CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH FOG/FROST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEEKEND, A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRUSH THE
REGION AND RETURN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FROM SALEM
SOUTHWARD. DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS NW OR AND
SW WA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
ZONAL OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS ARE ON THE WAY
TO SEEING PEAK TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG
AND FROST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO
AROUND 32-35 DEGREES, WHICH IS STILL PLENTY CHILLY FOR FROST.
HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH
COULD BEGIN STREAMING OVER THE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS, COULD IMPEDE THE COOLING
NEEDED FOR FROST AND/OR FOG.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A CUT-OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED IN THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH WILL
REACH AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN-MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY FROM LINCOLN/POLK/MARION COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS, THERE'S ABOUT A 25-30%
CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER ON SUNDAY,
INCLUDING THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA, AND ABOUT A 10-15%
CHANCE NORTH OF THIS. NOT MUCH RAIN NOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THIS SYSTEM. IN 48 HOURS ENDING 10 AM MONDAY, GENERAL QPF
IS 0.05-0.45 INCH SOUTH OF SALEM, HEAVIEST IN SOUTHERN LANE CO
FOR THE VALLEY AND THE CASCADES. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT THE WETTEST SCENARIO (10% CHANCE) IS
AROUND 0.25-0.8 INCH FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE AROUND 6000-7000 FEET, KEEPING SNOWFALL WELL-ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES.
TRANSIENT RIDGING RETURNS TO THE PACNW FOR MONDAY, LEADING TO A
RETURN OF COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING FOR
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN. MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN
PUSHING THE START TIME A TOUCH EARLIER INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL (~75%) FAVORS THE DRY
WEATHER COMING TO AN END BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT, NO
WIND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, LOCALLY UP TO 35-40 MPH OVER THE
TERRAIN, AS THE FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW COULD RETURN TO
THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 3500-4500 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IN A 48 HOUR PERIOD
FROM 4 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY ARE AROUND 50-70% ALONG
THE SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES AND 20% FOR HIGHWAY 26 AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP, WITH THE MOST SNOW FALLING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DECREASE AND
TRANSITION INTO SHOWERS. -03/10
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND KEUG AND LOWER STRATUS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. AT THIS
POINT THE CLOUDS HAVE HAD MINIMAL IMPACT AND THE OVERALL CLEAR
SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD DIURNAL COOLING. WHILE NOT
WIDESPREAD, THERE AREA FEW HINTS OF FOG OR PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM AT SOME AREA TERMINALS AS SATURATION OCCURS. THE CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT DENSE FOG FORMS ONCE AGAIN OR IF
CONDITIONS FROST OUT FIRST. AT THIS POINT, TEMPERATURES ARE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING WHICH BODES BETTER FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SATURATIONS IS VERY REDUCED WHICH
WILL HINDER FOG. AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY WOULD BE
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KEUG WHERE ENSEMBLES
SHOW AROUND A 35-45% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AND A 50% CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE OVERALL TREND, HAVE LEANED INTO A FOG
SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTH. IN THE NORTH, THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH
A 30% CHANCE OF IFR STRATUS FROM KUAO NORTH.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST, A STRATUS SHIELD WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG/FROST FROM REFORMING. THERE IS AROUND A 30%
CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM KSLE SOUTHWARD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS CONTINUE. THERE IS 10-15% CHANCE OF IFR VIS
AFTER 09Z SAT WITH PROBABILITIES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
15Z. -27
MARINE
UPDATE: SEAS HAVE GENERALLY OVER PERFORMED DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE.
WHILE PREVIOUSLY THE NORTHERN WATERS OF PZZ271 WERE EXPECTED TO
EASE, AREA BUOYS STILL SHOW ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 10 FT. THEREFORE,
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST HAVE INCREASED. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN
BETWEEN THE WAVE DRIVEN AND WIND DRIVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT
SHOULDN'T BE LONG-LIVED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -27
A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TODAY CONTINUES TO BRING SEAS AROUND 9 TO
12 FT WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WHILE THE SWELL
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, BRINGING GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE INNER WATERS DURING
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
FRIDAY, THEN FOR JUST THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON UNTIL
4 PM SATURDAY. INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTERLY, WHILE
SEAS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FT.
SEAS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO MONDAY,
THEN INCREASING TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
LIKELY STAY UNDER 10 FT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS OVER 21 KT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.~12
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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