359
FXUS66 KPQR 282252
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
252 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING CALIFORNIA BRINGS HIGH CLOUD
COVER TO THE REGION, WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER AREAS SOUTH OF SALEM AND LINCOLN CITY. TODAY INTO SUNDAY,
CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH
TOWARDS PORTLAND AND ASTORIA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN
MONDAY AS BRIEF RIDGING FORMS OVERHEAD. A STRONGER SYSTEM
ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
PASS-LEVEL CASCADE SNOW. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE REACHES AREAS SOUTH OF SALEM
AND LINCOLN CITY. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND POTENTIALLY REACH PORTLAND AND
ASTORIA. CURRENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS AROUND 20-40%
FOR CORVALLIS SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL THEN EXPAND/INCREASE TO A
30-60% CHANCE FOR SALEM SOUTHWARD BY TONIGHT (HIGHEST CHANCES
TO THE SOUTH). SUNDAY MORNING, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
EXPAND TO AURORA AND TILLAMOOK, THEN TO PORTLAND AND ASTORIA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A WHOLE, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 20-50% NORTH OF SALEM AND 50-90% SALEM
SOUTHWARD. THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO WILL HAVE A 15-30%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A
BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS. FROM NOW UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER 0.05 INCH NORTH OF SALEM AND TILLAMOOK
AND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SALEM AND TILLAMOOK SOUTHWARD. THE CASCADES
AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS OF LANE, LINN, AND MARION COUNTIES WILL
RECEIVE GREATER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
RANGING BETWEEN 0.4 TO 1.0 INCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6000 TO 7000 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY, LIMITING SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH CASCADES.
MONDAY, ENJOY DRY CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S, AS TUESDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF WET CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN, BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
TO THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS SYSTEM STILL VARIES,
WITH TIMING RANGING FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE RATHER
SIMILAR; AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH IN THE VALLEY, 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH
ALONG THE COAST, 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH IN THE COAST RANGE, AND 0.5
TO 1.0 INCH IN THE CASCADES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CHANCES
OF 1+ INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 48 HOURS AROUND 10-20% IN THE
VALLEY AND 30-40% ALONG THE COAST.
ONE DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY IS THE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES, AS SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FT
WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-70% CHANCE OF 6+ INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW AT
SANTIAM AND WILLAMETTE PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. FOR GOVERNMENT CAMP, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF 6+
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PEAK SNOWFALL RATES TO OCCUR LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SPECIFICALLY, BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW AT BOTH
PASSES, WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMES.
WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT DURING THIS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WEATHER SYSTEM, WITH TYPICAL GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH
IN THE LOWLANDS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LATE IN THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WEAKENS AND
TRANSITIONS TOWARDS A SHOWERY PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CASCADES WILL CONTINUE AS SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 3000 TO 4500 FT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. HEADING
INTO SATURDAY, RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TRIES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION, BUT ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES THE RIDGE. THIS ATTEMPT OF A BUILDING
RIDGE WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO RISE AND SHUT OFF THE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE
AGREEMENT FROM ENSEMBLES THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOWLANDS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
~12
AVIATION
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SUPPORTS MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. INLAND WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KT
OR LESS WITH EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST UP TO 10 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A LOW 10-20%
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 12Z ON SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR. -19
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. WINDS 5-10 KT FROM THE NE-E THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BUT REMAINING LIGHT. SEAS LESS THAN 10
FEET AND GENERALLY AROUND 4-7 FEET AT 8-10 SECONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE WATERS ON TUESDAY,
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS. SEAS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ONLY HAVE A 30-50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 10 FEET OR GREATER. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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