376
FXUS66 KPQR 222202
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
ZONAL FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED WARMING OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY HAS LED
TO A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR A STEEP INCLINE IN TEMPERATURES, THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS HINDERED SOME OF THE WARMING. OVERALL THOUGH, A
PLEASANT DAY TO OBSERVE THE CHERRY BLOSSOMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT THE CHANCES FOR FROST AND FOG RETURN, BUT A
SLIGHT PUSH OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
THEREFORE, FROST, IF IT DOES FORM, WILL BE PATCHIER AND WILL BE
MORE COMMON IN RURAL LOCATIONS AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MONDAY
MAINTAINS A TRANSITION DAY AS AIR ALOFT WARMS AND THE LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ON TUESDAY.
OVERALL, MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THEREFORE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY BY
AROUND 10 DEGREES F.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING AND THE WARM,
MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION. THE
OVERALL PATTERN HAS SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS TO THAT OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT QUITE THERE. WHILE
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE IMPACTFUL RAIN, BY TIME THE LOW
ADVANCES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SHORE TO REALLY MAKE AN IMPACT, IT
IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND THEREFORE, WASHINGTON STATE WILL
SEE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN. HOWEVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES ON TUESDAY WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE TERRAIN. THE MOST LIKELY RANGE OF 24-HR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY ARE AROUND 0.4-0.6 INCH IN THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY, AROUND 1.0-1.25 INCH IN THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES, AND AROUND 0.25-0.50 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 90TH PERCENTILE,
REPRESENTING THE "HIGH END AMOUNTS" ARE STILL FAIRLY REASONABLE
AND NOT UNEXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL, THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IS SHOWING LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE LOW LANDS, AND
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE TERRAIN. WITH THAT SAID, IF THE LOW
DOES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH, OR PUSHES INLAND A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
SOONER THAN EXPECTED, WE COULD SEE A HIGHER RAINFALL TOTAL.
ULTIMATELY, IN THIS SCENARIO, IT COMES DOWN TO DYNAMICS.
WITH THE WARM NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR ABOVE PASS LEVEL. CHANCES FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE
OVER THE CASCADES IS LESS THAN 5%. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT AT THAT
TIME, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 30%
IN THE LOWLANDS AND 70% IN THE TERRAIN.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST,
COAST RANGE, AND WILLAPA HILLS WHERE THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE
OF MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. INLAND, THIS PROBABILITY
DROPS TO ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND METRO AREA TO THE SALEM AREA.
CHANCES FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH FOR INLAND
AREAS INCREASE TO AROUND 50-75%, SO MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS PEAK
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND 40-45 MPH ALONG
THE COAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.-27
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ALOFT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -4 TO -5 DEG C.
WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION, WE WILL SEE SNOW IN THE
CASCADES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR, HOWEVER, THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IS STILL QUITE LOW. EVEN IF SNOW WERE TO FALL AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE ZONAL. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE PEAK DAY OF THE WARMING TREND, AND NBM INDICATES A 20-30%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.-27/03
AVIATION
DRY, WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KT FOR MOST
TERMINALS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, EXCEPT 10-15 KT AT KEUG.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT THROUGH 03-05Z SUN, THEN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BREAKS
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
LEADING TO POTENTIAL FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER METAL SURFACES BETWEEN
09-16Z SUN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKENING
BELOW 5 KT OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER METAL
SURFACES BETWEEN 09-16Z SUN. -10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT STRONG EBB WILL OCCUR AROUND 818
AM SUNDAY, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR BETWEEN 6-11 AM MONDAY AS THE EBB BUILDS SEAS
AROUND 7 TO 8 FT ALONG THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAR.
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON AND LEADING TO BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH AT LEAST 5 AM MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY LAST LONGER FOR THE OUTER WATERS BEYOND 10 NM
OFFSHORE, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES WILL GO
THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 7-10 FT AT 11 SEC AS WIND
WAVES INCREASE FROM THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
THE NEXT ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
ALL WATERS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 34 KT OR GREATER
ON TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AM TO
5 PM TUESDAY. DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
TO 11 PM TUESDAY. SEAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AROUND 12-15 FT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WIND WAVES
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL. THERE'S A 25-50% CHANCE
SEAS COULD EXCEED 15 FT WITH A 2-6% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 20
FT. CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, PEAKING ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON AND MAINLY BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE.
-10/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ210.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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