604
FXUS66 KPQR 191800 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1100 AM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS KEEPING NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WARM AND DRY TODAY. OUT OVER THE
PACIFIC, A STORM SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY, THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR COOLER, WETTER
WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE COOLEST AND MOST SHOWERY DAY OVERALL.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE REGION. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE POSITIONED WELL OFF THE
COAST, SUPPORTING AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THIS LOW WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT TEMPERATURES 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. CLOUD
COVER MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
MAINLY THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO HIT
80 DEGREES. PROBABILITIES REMAIN AROUND 30-60% FOR
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AND THE SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
EXPECTED.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SHIFT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASING
POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, JUST A TAD COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND IN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
WILL LIKELY SEE THE MID 70S WITH A 20-40% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AREAS REACHING 80 DEGREES. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN CREEP
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING AND REACHING THE METRO DURING
THE EVENING. -19
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LOW MAKING A LARGER MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE UP TO 0.15 INCHES COULD FALL. ELSEWHERE,
TOTALS LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES AND LIKELY SOME PLACES REMAINING
DRY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MORE
PERSISTENTLY OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLES DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG WITH SOME SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES THAT COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SOME
MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD HELP
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, EXPECT AROUND 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS AND
AROUND 1 TO 1.75 INCHES IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FROM
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEND DRIER AND WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S ON FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS
OFF THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE CASCADES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AGAIN HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -19
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. CIGS ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 10-15 KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT AT KTTD
WHERE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
KT. THAT SAID, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING DECREASING WIND SPEEDS TO KTTD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY WITH CIGS ABOVE 10-15 KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
EASTERLY WINDS WERE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE KPDX
TERMINAL BY 17-18Z SUNDAY, EXCESS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS DELAYED
DAYTIME HEATING, THUS PREVENTING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 1.5 KFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME
THINNING OF HIGH CLOUDS IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP ENOUGH FOR EASTERLY
WINDS ALOFT TO FINALLY MIX DOWN TO THE KPDX TERMINAL, SUSTAINED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-11 KT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING
AND DURATION OF EASTERLY WINDS IS LOW. IT APPEARS EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT LAST LONG IF THEY DO MATERIALIZE. -23
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS
UNDER 5 FT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS INCREASING BY A FEW FEET, BUT STAYING UNDER 10 FT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW,
SHOWERS, AND INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A PERIOD OF
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KT OR STRONGER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE FOR MAX WIND GUSTS
OVER 25 KT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 10-12 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE SEAS WILL PEAK OVER 12 FT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 1-5% CHANCE SEAS
WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 15 FT, WHICH REPRESENTS THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO.
VERY STRONG EBB CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STEEP EBB CHOP MAY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE HOURS AROUND PEAK FLOW EACH DAY. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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