454
FXUS66 KPQR 192202
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON, MAINTAINING A
WARM AND DRY PATTERN. FARTHER WEST, A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE RELIABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST SIGNAL FOR THE COOLEST AND MOST UNSETTLED
STRETCH REMAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND. BEYOND THAT, GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER
AND A WARMING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
EXPECT THE WARM/DRY THEME TO HOLD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY, SO ANY LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA (PRECIPITATION FALLING
ALOFT BUT EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND). TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH THE
COAST GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LATE-DAY TEMPERATURES IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND THE
NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CLOUD
DECK THINS DURING PEAK HEATING. EARLIER CLOUD PERSISTENCE HAS
TRIMMED THE ODDS OF REACHING 80, WITH PROBABILITIES NOW CLOSER
TO 20-40% FOR PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES. TONIGHT
WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD FOR APRIL WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS; LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
MONDAY MARKS THE SHIFT TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW DRIFTS CLOSER AND BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE INLAND.
EXPECT A NOTICEABLY CLOUDIER DAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOPING
FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND TOWARD THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO BY EVENING.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING; HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP STORMS ISOLATED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEAR LIGHT OVERALL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN (AROUND A 50-70%
CHANCE). TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD INLAND,
THOUGH A TOUCH COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY, GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE
COAST AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. THE METRO AREA SHOULD STILL MANAGE THE MID 70S, BUT THE
CHANCE OF 80 HAS DROPPED FURTHER (ROUGHLY 15-25%) GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD TIMING.
BY MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AND PRESS FARTHER NORTH AS A STEADIER FEED OF MOISTURE
ARRIVES. ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW
MAKING A MORE MEANINGFUL EASTWARD MOVE MONDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING
BROADER SHOWER COVERAGE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TOTALS REMAIN
MODEST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FAVORED ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
(UP TO ABOUT 0.15 INCH). ELSEWHERE, MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY
UNDER 0.10 INCH.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WIDESPREAD COOL,
SHOWERY WEATHER AS THE LOW COMES INLAND. HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WEDNESDAY STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE
STEADIEST SHOWERS SET UP, TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST AND WHETHER ONE OR MORE SMALLER FEATURES ROTATE THROUGH AND
ENHANCE RAINFALL. ONE SCENARIO BRINGS A SECONDARY LOW NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH WOULD LOCALLY BOOST
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE EXACT DISTRIBUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS SUPPORT AROUND 0.2 TO 0.8 INCHES IN THE
LOWLANDS AND ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.8 INCHES IN THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE AND SHOWER
COVERAGE DIMINISHES. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TRENDS DRIER AND
WARMER, WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY TO LINGER THE LONGEST ALONG THE
CASCADES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW 70S BY
FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS THIN. SATURDAY LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY IN TERMS OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM. ~12
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 10-15 KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT AT
KTTD WHERE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 20-25 KT AND AT THE COAST WHERE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING DECREASING WIND SPEEDS TO KTTD.
AFTER 18-21Z MONDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, LOWERING CIGS,
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE VERY
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS AT THE COAST. KONP HAS A 35-50% CHANCE FOR
CIGS BELOW 3000 FT BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY, WHILE KAST
HAS A 20% CHANCE BY 00Z TUESDAY. NOTE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE AROUND 00Z TUESDAY SOMEWHERE OVER THE CASCADES, FOOTHILLS
AND/OR WILLAMETTE VALLEY, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE IS UNDER 10%.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 10-15 KFT. EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT THE KPDX TERMINAL, SUSTAINED
AROUND 7-10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KT. IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00-01Z MONDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT END TIME. -23
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS
UNDER 5 FT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS THEN REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS INCREASING BY A FEW FEET WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL, HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY UNDER 10 FT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING EXACT WIND
SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WILL DETERMINE WHAT CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A PERIOD OF INCREASING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-25
KT OR STRONGER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THERE IS A 50-80%
CHANCE FOR MAX WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ARE BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST
10-12 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS A 25-45% CHANCE SEAS
WILL PEAK OVER 12 FT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS A 1-5% CHANCE SEAS WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 15 FT, WHICH
REPRESENTS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
VERY STRONG EBB CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD A FEW
FEET MONDAY MORNING DURING THE TIME OF A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT,
EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK NEAR 9 FT WITH STEEP EBB CHOP. THEREFORE, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
5 AM - NOON PDT MONDAY. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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