785
FXUS66 KPQR 211109
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
409 AM PDT TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL AND WET TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH MONDAY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.20 INCHES WEST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING. BETTER FORCING WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LANE
COUNTY. IF ANY STORMS OR MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS, THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS INLAND. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRINGING A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 0.05-0.25 INCHES WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, HIGHER END
TOTALS OVER THE COAST RANGE. TOTALS OVER THE CASCADES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 0.25 IN THE LOWLANDS TO 0.50 ALONG THE COAST RANGE PEAKS
AND CLOSER TO 0.5 TO 1.0+ INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.
CONDITIONS TREND DRY AND WARM THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THOUGH LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY. HIGHS JUMP BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND ON THURSDAY AND WARM FURTHER INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWINGS TOWARD THE PACNW. RIGHT NOW
THIS LOOKS UNIMPACTFUL BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES. POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20%. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
TO RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW, ABOUT 30-40% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW RAIN ON MONDAY. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT SHOULD
BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. -19
AVIATION
A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING LOWER
CIGS AND BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR MVFR OR
LOWER CIGS INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS FOR
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z TUE-00Z WED WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
KONP AND KEUG WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE NOTABLE
IMPROVEMENTSBEHIND THE FRONT. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. EXPECT WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
10 KT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND
10- 12Z TUE. AFTER 12Z TUE, CIGS DROP TO MVFR WITH THE LOWEST
CIGS (1-2 KFT) BETWEEN 12-21Z TUE. CIGS IMPROVE TO HIGH-END MVFR
TO LOW-END VFR AFTER 00-03Z WED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KT THROUGH 18Z TUE, TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
-19/10
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN TODAY WITH SEAS HOVERING
AROUND 5 FEET AND WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEARS THE
COAST, WITH SEAS LIKELY STAYING UNDER 8 FT AND WINDS STAYING
UNDER 15 KT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
PUSH SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FT. SEAS AND WINDS BOTH INCREASE MORE
CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE SEAS PEAK ABOVE 10 FEET BEYOND
10 NM OFFSHORE AND A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SEAS ABOVE 12 FEET OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STEEP, BORDERING BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
DOWN TO CAPE FOULWEATHER FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY. ISSUED A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK CLOSER TO 9-10 FT OVER
THE INNER WATERS. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 10 FT SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING.
A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE EBB
CYCLE, PUSHING SEAS UP TO 7 FT WITH STEEP EBB CHOP. HAVE ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR HAZARDOUS BAR CONDITIONS FROM 6 AM TO
10 AM THIS MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO
THE WATERS AND ANOTHER STRONG EBB CURRENT DURING THE MORNING.
-19/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PZZ210-251-252-271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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