405
FXUS66 KPQR 211757 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1056 AM PDT TUE APR 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS. UPDATED PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL AND WET TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH MONDAY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND
MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
TOTALS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.20 INCHES WEST OF
THE CASCADES THROUGH THE EVENING. BETTER FORCING WILL PUSH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE 0.25 INCHES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LANE
COUNTY. IF ANY STORMS OR MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS, THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS INLAND. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRINGING A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 0.05-0.25 INCHES WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, HIGHER END
TOTALS OVER THE COAST RANGE. TOTALS OVER THE CASCADES EXPECTED
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 0.25 IN THE LOWLANDS TO 0.50 ALONG THE COAST RANGE PEAKS
AND CLOSER TO 0.5 TO 1.0+ INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND CASCADE
FOOTHILLS.
CONDITIONS TREND DRY AND WARM THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THOUGH LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE CASCADES THURSDAY. HIGHS JUMP BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND ON THURSDAY AND WARM FURTHER INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWINGS TOWARD THE PACNW. RIGHT NOW
THIS LOOKS NON-IMPACTFUL BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES. POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20%. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
TO RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW, ABOUT 30-40% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW RAIN ON MONDAY. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT SHOULD
BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. -19
AVIATION
AT 1730Z TUESDAY, A SLOW-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT WAS
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS WERE MAINLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR,
EXCEPT VFR FROM KONP TO KEUG AS THESE TWO TERMINALS ARE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS,
EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH 00-03Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THEREAFTER
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR FOR INLAND TERMINALS.
THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AFTER 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN OR ROTATES COUNTER-CLOCKWISE INTO SOUTHWEST WA AND
FAR NORTHWEST OR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, LIKELY
IMPACTING KAST, KPDX, KTTD, AND KHIO BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
STRATIFORM RAIN. IT APPEARS RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY AT KUAO, KONP, AND KEUG. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT THE KPDX TERMINAL
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARDS VFR AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO
WHEN A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE RETURN OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KT. -23
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN TODAY WITH SEAS HOVERING
AROUND 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS UP
TO 7 TO 8 FT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS AND WINDS BOTH
INCREASE MORE CONSIDERABLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT SEAS TO PEAK BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE
SEAS PEAK ABOVE 10 FEET BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE AND A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR SEAS ABOVE 12 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS BEYOND 30
NM OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP, BORDERING BETWEEN
SMALL CRAFT AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER DOWN TO CAPE FOULWEATHER FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
11 AM THURSDAY. ISSUED A HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK CLOSER TO 9-10 FT OVER THE
INNER WATERS. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 10 FT SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING.
A STRONG EBB CURRENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PUSHING SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS AND
STEEP EBB CHOP. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PZZ210-251-252-271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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