030
FXUS66 KPQR 212035
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
135 PM PDT TUE APR 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL AND WET THROUGH TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE FRONTS MOVE OVER THE REGION. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
TREND COOLER AND DRIER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD, A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM
WESTERN CANADA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT A MORE
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND PATTERN AS WELL AS A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
AND CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S, BUT EXPECT SKIES TO SLOWLY CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL ENABLE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR THE
CASCADES AND MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM 0.05 TO 0.50
INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. BETTER FORCING ALONG THE CASCADES
WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE 0.30 TO 1.40 INCHES
FOR THE CASCADES THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE OR LESS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF LANE COUNTY. IF ANY STORMS OR MORE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS TREND
DRY AND WARM, THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE CASCADES
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH PLACES THE PACIFIC NW ON THE
EAST/NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SKIES
CLEARING ALONG WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN THAT THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE, WE WILL BE
SQUISHED BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLANES AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW MEANDERS INTO PLACE,
IT WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL RIDE THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVES,
ORIGINATE FROM A CONTINENTAL SYSTEM, THEY WILL LACK MOISTURE.
THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE NBM, GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE MAJORITY THEIR ENSEMBLES. /42
AVIATION
AT 20:30Z TUESDAY, A SLOW-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT WAS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS WERE MAINLY MVFR WITH
POCKETS OF IFR, EXCEPT VFR FROM KONP TO KEUG AS THESE TWO
TERMINALS ARE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KSLE AND KUAO WERE
ALSO STARTING TO SEE CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR AS THESE TERMINALS
WERE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, KUAO AND KSLE MAY
SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS BACK TO MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS,
EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THEREAFTER WITH
CEILINGS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL INLAND TERMINALS.
THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AFTER 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW SHIFTING INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN OR ROTATES COUNTER-CLOCKWISE INTO SOUTHWEST WA AND
FAR NORTHWEST OR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM
RAIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, LIKELY
IMPACTING KAST, KPDX, KTTD, AND KHIO BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
STRATIFORM RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN LAST AT KUAO, KONP, AND KEUG,
MOST LIKELY AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY AT KUAO AND AROUND 00Z THURSDAY
AT KONP AND KEUG. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT THE KPDX TERMINAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 02Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO WHEN
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, AS STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH TOWARDS 15Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE RETURN OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KT. -23
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY
EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY MORNING, A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 7 TO 8 FT WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL SEE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE A BIT LATER IN TIME,
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS PEAK BETWEEN 9-13 FT WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 10 TO 12 SECONDS, BRINGING STEEP
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS BEYOND 20-30 NM. WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 10 FT BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PZZ271 FROM 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 5 AM PDT THURSDAY,
FOLLOWING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT BEGINS AT 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY, EXCEPT 5 PM
WEDNESDAY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS
WINDS AND SEAS TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER.
NOTE THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 14-15 FT OVER
THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, WHICH REPRESENTS A REASONABLE WORST
CASE SCENARIO.
A STRONG EBB CURRENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PUSHING SEAS UP TO 7 TO 8 FT WITH STEEP EBB
CHOP OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL. SEAS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 9 TO 10
FT OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT THURSDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY PDT TO 5
PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR TO COVER THESE HAZARDS.
-23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ210-251-252-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ253-273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ271.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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