567
FXUS66 KPQR 291101
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
401 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, DELIVERING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK, MOISTURE-LIMITED TROUGH BRUSHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN AND LOW-END
CASCADE SHOWER CHANCES. WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONTINUE TO KEEP COLD WATER SAFETY IN MIND AS
LOCAL RIVERS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR COLD WATER SHOCK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPICTS A FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS SKIES SLOWLY BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT. THESE CLEARING SKIES ARE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY COLDER TO THE LOW TO MID
30S BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR FROST BEING ABOVE 1000 FEET
ELEVATION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST.
WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90% CHANCE) THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY, THEN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY. THE GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO DOWN TO AURORA HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY (ABOUT 80-90%), WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR IS LOWER (ROUGHLY 30-50%). WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP COMFORTABLY, KEEPING HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
LIMITED.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A WEAK
TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA. MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH APPEARS
LIMITED, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH
A MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL REMAINS THE CASCADES
(INCLUDING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS), WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
SUPPORT A 15-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS; ELSEWHERE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 10%. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH, BUT REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW TOWARDS CALIFORNIA WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (REX BLOCK PATTERN). THIS WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER WARM-UP WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS; THE CASCADES COULD STILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS DUE TO WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (>95%) FOR TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, WITH A
50-70% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. IF KPDX (PORTLAND INT'L AIRPORT)
REACHES 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, MAY 3RD, NOT ONLY WOULD THIS BREAK
THE DAILY RECORD OF 89 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1992, IT WOULD ALSO
BE THE SECOND EARLIEST DAY OF THE YEAR WHERE THE AIRPORT REACHED
90 DEGREES. THE EARLIEST KPDX REACHED 90 DEGREES WAS APRIL 30,
1998. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY TO TUESDAY,
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEK WARMTH, THOSE RECREATING ON AREA RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF WATER TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR COLD WATER SHOCK, EVEN ON HOT AFTERNOONS. WEAR A
PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICE AND USE EXTRA CAUTION AROUND FAST,
COLD WATER. -10/12
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
DEPICTS FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AS CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY CLEAR UP. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS ARE
ONLY 10-20% FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 16-17Z WED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TODAY, LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 17-18Z WED,
THEN STRENGTHENING IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN. NORTHERLY WINDS FOR INLAND TERMINALS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE COAST REMAINS BREEZIER WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT BETWEEN 21Z TUE-02 WED.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 10-20% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING
THROUGH 16-17Z WED. NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT TODAY. -10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLIES
STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(70-90% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WOULD MAINLY BE SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON BEGINNING 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH 11 PM FOR THE INNER WATERS (FROM SHORE TO 10 NM)
AND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS (BEYOND
10 NM OFFSHORE). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR DUE TO A STRONG EBB CURRENT BETWEEN 2-7
AM THURSDAY.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. MID-PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SECONDS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT BEACHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THOSE PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION. -10/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ121.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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