016
FXUS66 KPQR 291744 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1045 AM PDT WED APR 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, DELIVERING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK, MOISTURE-LIMITED TROUGH BRUSHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN AND LOW-END
CASCADE SHOWER CHANCES. WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONTINUE TO KEEP COLD WATER SAFETY IN MIND AS
LOCAL RIVERS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR COLD WATER SHOCK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPICTS A FEW/SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS SKIES SLOWLY BEGIN
TO CLEAR OUT. THESE CLEARING SKIES ARE SUPPORTING EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY COLDER TO THE LOW TO MID
30S BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR FROST BEING ABOVE 1000 FEET
ELEVATION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST.
WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90% CHANCE) THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY, THEN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY. THE GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO DOWN TO AURORA HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY (ABOUT 80-90%), WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR IS LOWER (ROUGHLY 30-50%). WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTHERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP COMFORTABLY, KEEPING HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
LIMITED.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A WEAK
TROUGH DROPS IN FROM CANADA. MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH APPEARS
LIMITED, SO MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH
A MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL REMAINS THE CASCADES
(INCLUDING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS), WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
SUPPORT A 15-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS; ELSEWHERE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 10%. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH, BUT REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW TOWARDS CALIFORNIA WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (REX BLOCK PATTERN). THIS WILL FAVOR
ANOTHER WARM-UP WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS; THE CASCADES COULD STILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS DUE TO WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (>95%) FOR TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, WITH A
50-70% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. IF KPDX (PORTLAND INT'L AIRPORT)
REACHES 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, MAY 3RD, NOT ONLY WOULD THIS BREAK
THE DAILY RECORD OF 89 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1992, IT WOULD ALSO
BE THE SECOND EARLIEST DAY OF THE YEAR WHERE THE AIRPORT REACHED
90 DEGREES. THE EARLIEST KPDX REACHED 90 DEGREES WAS APRIL 30,
1998. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY TO TUESDAY,
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEK WARMTH, THOSE RECREATING ON AREA RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF WATER TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR COLD WATER SHOCK, EVEN ON HOT AFTERNOONS. WEAR A
PERSONAL FLOATATION DEVICE AND USE EXTRA CAUTION AROUND FAST,
COLD WATER. -10/12
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY, SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THU FOR MOST TERMINALS,
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 09-12Z THU.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AIRSPACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERLY WINDS AT KTTD BEGINNING
AROUND 06-08Z THU. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 7-9 KT INLAND AND 9-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE WILL
WEAKEN TO BELOW 8 KT BY 03-05Z THU.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z THU. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-9 KT BETWEEN 21Z WED
AND 03Z THU, THEN LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z THU.~12
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLIES
STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRENGTHENING SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST. WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90%
CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WOULD MAINLY BE SOUTH OF CAPE
FALCON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON BEGINNING 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH 11 PM FOR THE INNER WATERS (FROM SHORE TO 10 NM) AND
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS (BEYOND 10 NM
OFFSHORE). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR DUE TO A STRONG EBB CURRENT BETWEEN 2-7 AM
THURSDAY.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. MID-PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SECONDS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT BEACHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THOSE PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTION. -10/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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