503
FXUS66 KPQR 292216
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY,
COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE DRIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DRAWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES, INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S, AND POTENTIALLY
REACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND METRO. WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, KEEP COLD WATER SAFETY IN MIND AS LOCAL
RIVERS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR COLD WATER SHOCK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A WARMING TREND IS
UNDERWAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING BACK INTO
THE 40S. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION, LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS, AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12 C, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO WARM INTO AT LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (80-90%) FOR
REACHING 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5
CORRIDOR IS LOWER (30-50%). THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF
2026 FOR PDX IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. THE AVERAGE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY IS
AROUND MAY 7TH.
ON FRIDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE, WHICH THEN
DRIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES
AND FOOTHILLS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT (15%)
CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY SOUTH OF MT. HOOD NEAR THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVER THE CASCADES AND UP TO 20% CHANCE OF THUNDER. THERE
IS MORE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVERAGE, AS HIGH TEMPS COULD
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER-TO-MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS ALSO
TURN BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE MODERATED PACIFIC
AIR.
BY SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED
MOST LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NW, SETTING UP A REX BLOCK
PATTERN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
AGAIN TO AROUND 14-17 C. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, THERE IS AROUND A 50-70%
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. IF PDX REACHES 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY (MAY
3RD), IT WOULD BE THE SECOND EARLIEST 90 DEGREE TEMP OF THE SEASON
AT THE AIRPORT (THE EARLIEST RECORDED 90F AT PDX WAS APRIL 20,
1998). THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, IN PART DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SURGES. SHOWERS
ARE NOW LIKELY FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES, ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE
OF THUNDER, WHILE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS LOWER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS (15-30%) AND THUNDER (10-15%) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, INCLUDING EUGENE. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER
THERE IF CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP DO MANIFEST.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEK WARMTH, THOSE RECREATING ON AREA RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN AWARE OF WATER TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
COLD WATER SHOCK, EVEN ON HOT AFTERNOONS. WEAR A PERSONAL FLOATATION
DEVICE AND USE EXTRA CAUTION AROUND FAST, COLD WATER.
ENSEMBLES AND THE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME FORM OF THE REX
BLOCK PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE DETAILS. CONDITIONS LIKELY
REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM, THOUGH ARE MOST LIKELY TO COOL BACK SOMEWHERE INTO THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY PUSH MARINE STRATUS
BACK UP THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY INLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. /DH
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY, SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THU FOR MOST TERMINALS,
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 09-12Z THU.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AIRSPACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERLY WINDS AT KTTD BEGINNING
AROUND 06-08Z THU. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 7-9 KT INLAND AND 9-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE WILL
WEAKEN TO WELL BELOW 8 KT BY 03-06Z THU.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z THU. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-9 KT PERSIST UNTIL
03Z THU, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z THU. ~12
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BEGINNING TO BRING GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT TO
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH FRIDAY, SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AND SEAS MAY SPREAD NORTH OF CAPE FALCON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
WILL ALSO GO INTO EFFECT FOR A STRONG EBB CURRENT BETWEEN 2-7 AM
THURSDAY. LASTLY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE FALCON HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM FRIDAY.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. MID-PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SECONDS MAY RESULT
IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS AND BEACH RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION.~12/10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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