282
FXUS66 KPQR 301721
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1021 AM PDT THU APR 30 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND HAZARDS SECTIONS.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OREGON, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CASCADES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S, AND POTENTIALLY 90 DEGREES IN
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. THOSE SEEKING RELIEF FROM HEAT IN
RIVERS AND LAKES SHOULD MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND
WEAR A PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICE.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTS MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST
WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATER TODAY,
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER, LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (80-90%) FOR REACHING 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY,
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR IS LOWER (20-40%). THIS
WOULD BE THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF 2026 FOR KPDX IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. THE AVERAGE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY IS AROUND MAY 7TH.
ON FRIDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE,
WHICH THEN DRIFTS SOUTH ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT (15%) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH
OF MT. HOOD. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AND UP TO A 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS MORE
SPREAD IN POTENTIAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVERAGE, AS HIGH TEMPS COULD RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER-TO-MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS ALSO TURN
BACK ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE MODERATED PACIFIC
AIR.
BY SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED
MOST LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NW, SETTING UP A REX BLOCK
PATTERN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
AGAIN TO AROUND 14-17 DEGREES C. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK (AND YEAR SO FAR).
IN FACT, THERE IS AROUND A 60-80% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO.
IF PDX REACHES 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY (MAY 3RD), IT WOULD BE THE
SECOND EARLIEST 90 DEGREE TEMP OF THE SEASON AT THE AIRPORT (THE
EARLIEST RECORDED 90F AT KPDX WAS APRIL 30, 1998). THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, IN PART DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SURGES. SHOWERS ARE
NOW LIKELY FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES, ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS LOWER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS (15-30%) AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-15%) ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING EUGENE. TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THERE IF CLOUDS AND/OR
SHOWERS DO MANIFEST.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEK WARMTH, THOSE SEEKING RELIEF FROM HEAT IN
RIVERS AND LAKES MAY BE EXPOSED TO WATER HAZARDS SUCH AS SWIFT
CURRENTS AND/OR COLD WATER, BOTH OF WHICH CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND WEAR A
PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICE.
ENSEMBLES AND THE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME FORM OF THE REX
BLOCK PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FULL-SCALE RIDGING
RETURNING BY MID-WEEK AS THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, THOUGH ARE MOST LIKELY TO
COOL BACK SOMEWHERE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. A SOUTHERLY WIND
REVERSAL MAY PUSH MARINE STRATUS BACK UP THE COAST AND
POTENTIALLY INLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. -10/DH
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTH OF KTMK
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18-20Z THU. INLAND TERMINALS REMAIN VFR WITH
SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST,
BREEZIEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 21Z THU-
02Z FRI WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTEST. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,
WINDS REMAIN NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AND UNDER 10 KT. MARINE STRATUS
RETURNS TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST, BETWEEN 03-07Z FRI AROUND KONP AND
SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH TO KAST BY 08-12Z FRI THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE AT ANY GIVEN HOUR FOR A RETURN OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KONP. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A STRONG
ENOUGH MARINE PUSH FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR MARINE STRATUS
PUSHING INTO KEUG BETWEEN 12-15Z FRI. THIS WOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18-20Z FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 KT TURNING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 19-21Z AND INCREASING TO AROUND 7-9 KT. -03
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
MAINLY BE SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH FRIDAY, SMALL CRAFT WINDS
AND SEAS MAY SPREAD NORTH OF CAPE FALCON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (0-10 NM OFFSHORE) AND
THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE) REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR BETWEEN 2-7
AM THIS MORNING AND 3-8 AM FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG EBB CURRENTS.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. MID-PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SECONDS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. SWELL PERIODS INCREASE TO 15-19 SEC OVER THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS AND BEACH RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION. -10/12
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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