454
FXUS66 KPQR 302150
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OREGON, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CASCADES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY,
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S, AND POTENTIALLY 90 DEGREES IN
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. THOSE SEEKING RELIEF FROM HEAT IN
RIVERS AND LAKES SHOULD MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND WEAR
A PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICE. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT EASTWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHILE THE PORTLAND METRO
MAINTAINS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (80-90%) TO REACH 80 DEGREES. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW. EXPECT
THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE, IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S. AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS, AND
POTENTIALLY (10% CHANCE) ELEVATED THUNDER, MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE NORTHERN CA COAST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE VORTICITY WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY (15-25% CHANCE) A THUNDERSTORM.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S, AND
AGAIN NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVERAGE. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN DURING THE DAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
80 DEGREES, AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE INCREASED INSTABILITY AS
SURFACE BASED CAPE COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THE
OREGON CASCADES.
BY SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REBUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NW, SETTING UP A REX BLOCK PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
15-17 DEGREES C. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND YEAR, SO FAR. IN FACT, THERE IS AROUND
A 70-90% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. IF PDX REACHES 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
(MAY 3RD), IT WOULD BE THE SECOND EARLIEST 90 DEGREE TEMP OF THE
SEASON AT THE AIRPORT (THE EARLIEST RECORDED 90F AT KPDX WAS APRIL
30, 1998). THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, IN PART DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SURGES. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES, ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS LOWER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS (10-20%) AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-15%) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING EUGENE. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THERE IF CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO MANIFEST.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEK WARMTH, THOSE SEEKING RELIEF FROM HEAT IN
RIVERS AND LAKES MAY BE EXPOSED TO WATER HAZARDS SUCH AS SWIFT
CURRENTS AND/OR COLD WATER, BOTH OF WHICH CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND WEAR A PERSONAL
FLOTATION DEVICE. MODERATE HEAT RISK ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO AFFECT THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
ENSEMBLES AND THE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME FORM OF THE REX
BLOCK PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FULL-SCALE RIDGING
RETURNING BY MID-WEEK AS THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, THOUGH ARE MOST LIKELY TO COOL
BACK SOMEWHERE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE REMAINS AROUND A 50-
80% CHANCE OF TEMPS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY FROM SALEM
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
PUSH MARINE STRATUS BACK UP THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY INLAND BY
MONDAY MORNING. /DH
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST SOUTH
OF KTMK CONTINUES TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z THU, THOUGH A 20-30% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 03-07Z FRI AT KONP AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST TO KAST BY 08-12Z FRI. EXPECT MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AT KONP AND A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AT KAST. INLAND
TERMINALS REMAIN VFR WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS. LATEST GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A STRONG ENOUGH MARINE PUSH FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF
MVFR MARINE STRATUS PUSHING INTO KEUG BETWEEN 12-15Z FRI. THIS
WOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18-20Z FRI. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 03Z FRI
WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTEST. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, WINDS
GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AND UNDER 10 KT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-9
KT BECOME NORTHERLY AND DECREASE TO AROUND OR BELOW 5 KTS AFTER
02-04Z FRI. -03
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
MAINLY BE SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH FRIDAY, SMALL CRAFT WINDS
AND SEAS MAY SPREAD NORTH OF CAPE FALCON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (0-10 NM OFFSHORE) AND THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE) REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FOR 3-8 AM
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG EBB CURRENTS.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. MID-PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SECONDS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. SWELL PERIODS INCREASE TO 15-19 SEC OVER THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS AND BEACH RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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