836
FXUS66 KPQR 010425 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
925 PM PDT THU APR 30 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OREGON, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CASCADES. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S, AND POTENTIALLY 90
DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. THOSE SEEKING RELIEF
FROM HEAT IN RIVERS AND LAKES SHOULD MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER
SAFETY AND WEAR A PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICE. DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT EASTWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHILE THE PORTLAND METRO
MAINTAINS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (80-90%) TO REACH 80 DEGREES. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS TURN BACK ONSHORE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW. EXPECT
THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE, IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S. AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY
OVER THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS, AND
POTENTIALLY (10% CHANCE) ELEVATED THUNDER, MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS OFF
THE NORTHERN CA COAST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE VORTICITY WILL LIKELY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY (15-25% CHANCE) A THUNDERSTORM.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S, AND
AGAIN NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVERAGE. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN DURING THE DAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
80 DEGREES, AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE INCREASED INSTABILITY AS
SURFACE BASED CAPE COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THE
OREGON CASCADES.
BY SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REBUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NW, SETTING UP A REX BLOCK PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
15-17 DEGREES C. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND YEAR, SO FAR. IN FACT, THERE IS AROUND
A 70-90% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. IF PDX REACHES 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
(MAY 3RD), IT WOULD BE THE SECOND EARLIEST 90 DEGREE TEMP OF THE
SEASON AT THE AIRPORT (THE EARLIEST RECORDED 90F AT KPDX WAS APRIL
30, 1998). THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, IN PART DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE
UPPER LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SURGES. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES, ALONG WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS LOWER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS (10-20%) AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-15%) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING EUGENE. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THERE IF CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS DO MANIFEST.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEK WARMTH, THOSE SEEKING RELIEF FROM HEAT IN
RIVERS AND LAKES MAY BE EXPOSED TO WATER HAZARDS SUCH AS SWIFT
CURRENTS AND/OR COLD WATER, BOTH OF WHICH CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND WEAR A PERSONAL
FLOTATION DEVICE. MODERATE HEAT RISK ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO AFFECT THOSE
WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
ENSEMBLES AND THE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME FORM OF THE REX
BLOCK PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FULL-SCALE RIDGING
RETURNING BY MID-WEEK AS THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHIFTS
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, THOUGH ARE MOST LIKELY TO COOL
BACK SOMEWHERE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE REMAINS AROUND A 50-
80% CHANCE OF TEMPS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY FROM SALEM
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL MAY
PUSH MARINE STRATUS BACK UP THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY INLAND BY
MONDAY MORNING. /DH
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST SOUTH
OF KTMK PERSISTS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
THESE LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
NORTHWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KAST STARTING AROUND 08Z-10Z
FRIDAY. INLAND TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEUG. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
STRONG ENOUGH MARINE PUSH FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR MARINE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO KEUG STARTING AROUND 13Z-15Z FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z-20Z FRIDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH, KAST
MIGHT HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. HOWEVER,
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FROM 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY WHEN
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTEST. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, NORTHERLY
WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT,
BECOMING NORTHERLY UNDER 10 KT AFTER 20Z FRIDAY. /42
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(70-90% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT. WHILE THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON THROUGH FRIDAY, SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS MAY SPREAD
NORTH OF CAPE FALCON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE INNER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON (0-10 NM OFFSHORE) AND THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE FALCON FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON
(BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE) REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FOR 3-8 AM FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG EBB CURRENTS.
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. MID-PERIOD SWELLS OF 12-15 SECONDS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. SWELL PERIODS INCREASE TO 15-19 SEC OVER THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. THOSE
PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS AND BEACH RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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