763
FXUS66 KPQR 011010
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
310 AM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
LARGELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES LOCALLY. AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING OFF THE COAST
WILL RAISE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND SATURDAY, MOST LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES. UNSEASONABLE
HEAT THEN PEAKS LATE THIS WEEKEND, AND THOSE SEEKING RELIEF IN
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF COLD WATER HAZARDS
AND PRACTICE WATER SAFETY. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A
CLOSER UPPER LOW AND MEANDER OFF THE OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE, LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN
AND 70S AT INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH COOLER VALUES TO THE
SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THICKEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY, RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES UPWARD, WITH 30-60% CHANCES
OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ALONG THE I-5 AND I-84 CORRIDORS FROM
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NORTH AND EAST, AND 10-20% FROM
SALEM SOUTHWARD.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SUPPORT 15-35% CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS BUT POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TODAY AND SATURDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY IS FAVORED IN THE CASCADES ABOVE 2500-3000 FT,
WHERE THERE ARE 50-80% CHANCES FOR DEVELOPING 1000 J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE NEAR PEAK HEATING IN THE MID-AFTERNOON EACH
DAY. THIS WILL YIELD 15-25% CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY
AS MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY, DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE SURFACE HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY, WHILE THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH WILL HELP
SPREAD POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE SBCAPE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER TOP THE CLOSED LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, SUPPORTING HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES ALONG THE
LOWER COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEYS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. SUNNY SKIES AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISING
TO 17-18C AT 850 HPA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S WITHIN INLAND VALLEYS, AND TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
CHANCES TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES ARE THE HIGHEST NEAR PORTLAND, WITH
75-95% CHANCES ACROSS THE METRO AREA, AND LOWER TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH: 15-25% IN THE LEWIS AND COWLITZ VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON, 25-45% IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING
SALEM AND MCMINNVILLE, AND 10-25% IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. IF PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DOES REACH 90 DEGREES,
AS IS EXPECTED, THIS WOULD REPRESENT THE SECOND-EARLIEST 90
DEGREE READING ON RECORD, SURPASSED ONLY BY APRIL 30, 1998.
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT CLIMATE SITES
ACROSS THE REGION, IN SOME CASES BREAKING PREVIOUS RECORDS BY
MORE THAN 5 DEGREES. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DURING THIS LATE-WEEKEND WARMTH, THOSE SEEKING RELIEF FROM HEAT
IN AREA RIVERS AND LAKES MAY BE EXPOSED TO WATER HAZARDS SUCH
AS SWIFT CURRENTS AND/OR COLD WATER, BOTH OF WHICH CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE WATER SAFETY AND WEAR A
PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICE. MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, LOWER COLUMBIA
VALLEY, AND COLUMBIA GORGE ON SUNDAY MAY ALSO AFFECT THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES
INLAND. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WILL INCREASE MARINE STRATUS
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST, WITH BROADER ONSHORE FLOW COOLING
INLAND AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER A MINORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITHIN THE
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER, MOST LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -36
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST SOUTH
OF KTMK PERSISTS RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
THESE LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
NORTHWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KAST STARTING AROUND 08Z-10Z
FRIDAY. INLAND TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEUG. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
STRONG ENOUGH MARINE PUSH FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR MARINE
STRATUS PUSHING INTO KEUG STARTING AROUND 13Z-15Z FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z-20Z FRIDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH, KAST
MIGHT HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. HOWEVER,
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FROM 20Z FRIDAY THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY WHEN
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTEST. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, NORTHERLY
WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT,
BECOMING NORTHERLY UNDER 10 KT AFTER 20Z FRIDAY. /42
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS DIURNAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN, YIELDING GUSTS OF 20-25
KT, MOST LIKELY BEYOND 20 NM AND SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THESE AREAS, EXPANDING TO
INCLUDE THE OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AND INNER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON AFTER 2 PM TODAY. AS
WINDS EASE TONIGHT, GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW 20 KT IN THESE AREAS
BY 2 AM SATURDAY, AND IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON
BY 8 AM SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 10 NM NORTH OF CAPE FALCON
INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED, BUT THE DURATION AND FREQUENCY DOES NOT MERIT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-8 FT WITH
A MID-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 5-6 FT AT 12-14 SECONDS
LENGTHENING TO 14-16 SECONDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LONG-PERIOD
SWELL WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT AT AREA
BEACHES, AND THOSE PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS OR OTHER
COASTAL RECREATION SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.
STRONG CURRENTS CONTINUE DURING MORNING EBB TIDES ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM TODAY DUE TO STEEP SEAS OF 6-7 FT
DURING THE PEAK EBB TIDE. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR SUBSEQUENT STRONG EBBS, HOWEVER
SEAS FALLING BELOW 7 FT MAY PRECLUDE THIS.
A WIND REVERSAL ON MONDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED LOW MARINE STRATUS
AND OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. MORE SEASONABLE NORTHERLY
FLOW REDEVELOPS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT
SEAS OF 4-7 FT. -36
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, MAY 3:
LOCATIONFORECASTRECORD (YEAR)
ASTORIA7581 (1992, 1944)
VANCOUVER8984 (1944)
PORTLAND INT'L9289 (1992)
HILLSBORO9082 (2017)
MCMINNVILLE8787 (1992)
SALEM8986 (1992)
EUGENE8583 (1944)
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ252-253-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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