803
FXUS66 KPQR 032215
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TONIGHT AFTER A HOT SPRING
DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SUPPORTING
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
PATTERN POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD, SUPPORTING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE. THIS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE PORTLAND-VANCOUVER METRO, COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, AND PARTS OF THE CASCADE AND COAST RANGE FOOTHILLS.
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORDS AT CLIMATE SITES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE CLIMATE
CHART BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORDS AND EXPECTED HIGHS. HOT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES YIELD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO INCLUDING THE TUALATIN VALLEY, AND LOWER COLUMBIA &
COWLITZ VALLEYS, AND A HEAT ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 11 PM TODAY. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR
PARTICIPATING IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE AT HIGHER
RISK OF DEVELOPING HEAT ILLNESS, AND SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS OR FIND A COOL PLACE TO AVOID THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT.
DESPITE HOT AIR TEMPERATURES, AREA RIVERS AND LAKES REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH TO CAUSE COLD SHOCK WHICH CAN BE FATAL. THOSE HEADING TO
THE COAST TO AVOID THE HEAT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AWARE OF AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SWEEP YOU OFF
OF YOUR FEET AND DISLODGE LOGS CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
AVOID JETTIES, ROCKS, AND LOGS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE, AND NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WITH MODELS SHOWING 50-80% CHANCE FOR
1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY LIKELY OVER THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY
CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS WHERE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM THE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE GREATEST. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH FORCING TO INITIATE CONVECTION UNDER A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES
COULD BECOME STRONG JUST BASED ON LEVEL OF INSTABILITY BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE ELSE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED CONVECTION. SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITED AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE LEVEL STORMS IS VERY LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S AFTER 9
PM, BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HOT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. -19/36
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 70S ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. HIGHS WILL
STILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR MARINE STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LANE AND
LINN COUNTY CASCADES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST IF THE MARINE
STRATUS IS THICK ENOUGH.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORS THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. -19
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL NW OR AND SW WA
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS ALONG THE COAST
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL IMPACTS
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
DEBRIS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
AFTER 03-06Z MON, A WIND REVERSAL WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION, SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
12Z MON. AT COASTAL TERMINALS, A RENEWED PUSH OF MARINE STRATUS
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS, RETURNING BY
03-06Z MON AT KONP AND 09-12Z MON AT KAST. THIS MARINE PUSH LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH REACH INLAND TO KEUG AND THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY BY 09-12Z MON WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
50-60% CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S A 30-40%
CHANCE MVFR CIGS REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KSLE AND A 15-20% CHANCE
THEY REACH KPDX AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18-21Z MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-8
KT WILL TURN NORTHERLY AROUND 00Z MON, THEN ULTIMATELY SOUTHERLY
BY 10-12Z MON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUD COVER
MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NO TERMINAL IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE'S A 15-20% CHANCE OF MARINE STRATUS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KPDX AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS AFTER
12-16Z MON. -03/36
MARINE
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 18-20 KTS POSSIBLE NORTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER, CALMING THIS
EVENING. A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL BEGINS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
CAPE FOULWEATHER, WITH THE WIND TRANSITION SPREADING FROM THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS FORM ALONG THE INNER WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS. SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF MARINE
STRATUS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. SEAS AROUND 6-8
FEET THROUGH MONDAY, FALLING TO 4-5 FEET ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT
SEAS OF 4-6 FT. -03
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, MAY 3
LOCATION FORECAST RECORD YEAR
ASTORIA 78 81 1992, 1944
VANCOUVER 90 84 1944
PORTLAND INT'L 91 89 1992
HILLSBORO 91 82 2017
MCMINNVILLE 86 87 1992
SALEM 86 86 1992
EUGENE 83 83 1944
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ108-109-111-
112.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ204>207.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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