971
FXUS66 KPQR 051000
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MARINE CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST, AND
NIGHTLY PUSHES INLAND WHICH WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES
INCREASE FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING WARM AND DRY AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH MONDAY
A CONSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SPANS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITHIN
INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW MARINE CLOUD DECK WILL
VARY DIURNALLY, WITH INLAND PUSHES EACH NIGHT BRINGING MIST OR
DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND INCREASINGLY OVERCAST SKIES INLAND,
FOLLOWED BY A DAYTIME WITHDRAWAL ALLOWING SKIES TO TREND
CLEARER. THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE MORNING CLOUD BURN-OFF
WILL MODULATE AFTERNOON HIGHS; TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTATIONS IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY, WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT MORNING OVERCAST WILL LIMIT HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH THAT AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT IMPACTS FOR THOSE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RIDE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THOSE CHANCES REMAIN ONLY 25-45% AT THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST
AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND INCREASING TO THE NORTH FROM AROUND
10% NEAR EUGENE TO 20% NEAR KELSO/LONGVIEW ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DROP BELOW 5% EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST INCLUDING THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR RAIN
BEGINNING AT THE COAST SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ANY
TIME FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS POSSIBLE,
THEN MOVING INLAND WITHIN A FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN
THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD, YIELDING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS POINT, THERE ARE 35-65% CHANCES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES
ALONG MUCH OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR ON MOTHER'S DAY. -36
AVIATION
AS OF 05Z TUE, MARINE STRATUS HAS REFORMED ALONG THE
COAST WITH AN ONSHORE MARINE SURGE PUSHING THE MARINE STRATUS
INLAND THROUGH COAST RANGE GAPS IN CENTRAL OR AS WELL AS ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE MARINE MOISTURE
IS ALSO CAUSING BACK BUILDING STRATUS TO FORM ALONG THE WESTERN
CASCADE FOOTHILLS, WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY CONTINUE BUILDING WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL
BECOME IFR AFTER 06-08Z TUE WITH DROPS TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 14Z TUE. EXPECTING CIGS AT MOST INLAND TERMINALS TO
BECOME MVFR, MOST LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z TUE. INLAND
TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18-21Z TUE.
COASTAL TERMINALS LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 19-23Z TUE.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY
INLAND, THOUGH MORE VARIABLE AROUND THE PORTLAND METRO
TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY ALONG THE COAST AND
NORTHERLY INLAND AFTER 18Z TUE, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MARINE STRATUS IS FORMING AROUND PORTLAND
AREA TERMINALS AS OF 05Z TUE. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR LESS
THAN 3000 FT SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-12Z TUE. CIGS MAY INITIALLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LOW END VFR AND MVFR BEFORE FULLY SETTLING
INTO MVFR BY 12-14Z TUE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
17-19Z TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 7 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BETWEEN 06-09Z TUE THEN SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
18Z TUE. -03
MARINE
A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING PERSISTENT LOW
STRATUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL TURN WESTERLY AND WEAKEN TO 5 KT OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO TURN NORTHERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURN WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING THIS WEEKEND WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY FLOW, WHICH MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. CHANCES FOR GUSTS
TO REACH 21 KT OR HIGHER INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM 20-60% ON SUNDAY
TO 35-65% ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AT 4-7 FT WITH A PERSISTENT
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. -36/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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