711
FXUS66 KPQR 051130
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
430 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MARINE CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST, AND NIGHTLY
PUSHES INLAND WHICH WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES INCREASE
FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING WARM AND DRY AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH MONDAY
A CONSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SPANS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITHIN
INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW MARINE CLOUD DECK WILL
VARY DIURNALLY, WITH INLAND PUSHES EACH NIGHT BRINGING MIST OR
DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND INCREASINGLY OVERCAST SKIES INLAND,
FOLLOWED BY A DAYTIME WITHDRAWAL ALLOWING SKIES TO TREND
CLEARER. THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE MORNING CLOUD BURN-OFF
WILL MODULATE AFTERNOON HIGHS; TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTATIONS IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY, WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT MORNING OVERCAST WILL LIMIT HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH THAT AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT IMPACTS FOR THOSE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
CONSENSUS REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RIDE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THOSE CHANCES REMAIN ONLY 25-45% AT THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST
AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN, AND INCREASING TO THE NORTH FROM AROUND
10% NEAR EUGENE TO 20% NEAR KELSO/LONGVIEW ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DROP BELOW 5% EAST OF THE
CASCADE CREST INCLUDING THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
COLUMBIA GORGE. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR RAIN
BEGINNING AT THE COAST SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ANY
TIME FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS POSSIBLE,
THEN MOVING INLAND WITHIN A FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN
THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD, YIELDING A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS POINT, THERE ARE 35-65% CHANCES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES
ALONG MUCH OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR ON MOTHER'S DAY. -36
AVIATION
A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST PUSH HAS BROUGHT MARINE
STRATUS WELL INLAND TO THE CASCADE CREST RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OF 1.5-2 KFT EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH-END
IFR CIGS OF 800-1000 FT ARE MOST LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE) ALONG
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST SOUTH OF KTMK, INCLUDING KONP, THROUGH
THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 19-21Z TUE AS LOW CLOUDS LARGELY MIX OUT, WHILE COASTAL
TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR UNTIL 21-23Z TUE. CLOUD
COVER AT 2-3 KFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE COAST, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD FALL LOW ENOUGH TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MARINE STRATUS WILL AGAIN PUSH INLAND TONIGHT, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE COAST BY 03-06Z WED, AND
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WED.
LIGHT WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE AT PORTLAND-AREA
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 20Z TUE AS
INCREASED MIXING WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD DECK AND RAISE
CLOUD BASES TO 3-4 KFT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, WITH MARINE STRATUS REDEVELOPING
LATE IN THE PERIOD, AFTER 06-09Z WED. CHANCES FOR FURTHER MVFR
CIGS REACH 50% NEAR 12Z WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 5 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. -36
MARINE
A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING PERSISTENT LOW
STRATUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL TURN WESTERLY AND WEAKEN TO 5 KT OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO TURN NORTHERLY
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURN WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING THIS WEEKEND WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY FLOW, WHICH MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. CHANCES FOR GUSTS
TO REACH 21 KT OR HIGHER INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM 20-60% ON SUNDAY
TO 35-65% ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AT 4-7 FT WITH A PERSISTENT
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. -36/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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