333
FXUS66 KPQR 221117
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
417 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES EASE DOWN A BIT AFTER
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WITH RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT, WHICH COULD AFFECT OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EARLY THIS FRIDAY
MORNING, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS QUIET WITH BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COMPARED WITH THURSDAY, THE AIR MASS IS STILL WARM BUT THE PEAK
HEAT HAS PASSED, AND TODAY SHOULD COME IN A FEW DEGREES LOWER
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY, WITH THE COAST
STARTING COOLER UNDER MARINE STRATUS WHILE INLAND VALLEYS WARM
EFFICIENTLY.
THE DRY STRETCH HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES TREND
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT REMAIN ABOVE LATE-
MAY AVERAGES, GENERALLY NEAR 80 TODAY FOR INLAND VALLEYS, THEN
SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG
THE COAST, MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES, KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER CLEARING AT TIMES.
CHANGES ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FIRST ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN SPREAD INLAND MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE A BENEFICIAL, NON-IMPACTFUL RAIN
EVENT OVERALL, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT ONSET TIMING
AND TOTALS.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN (48 HOUR
TOTALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING) REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
TERRAIN: ROUGHLY 70-90% FOR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND
80-90% FOR THE CASCADES. PROBABILITIES DROP ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH ABOUT A 40-60% CHANCE FOR THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS AND AROUND A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, MONDAY MAY TURN BREEZY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. PROBABILITIES FAVOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH
(AROUND 50-70%), WITH A LOWER CHANCE (ROUGHLY 20-40%) OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SUGGESTIVE OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE MINOR ISSUES
FOR UNSECURED TENTS OR LIGHT OUTDOOR GEAR.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL SHARPLY WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS INTERIOR LOWLANDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN
TRENDS CLOSER TO SEASONAL MIDWEEK, THOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY TIES TO LINGERING LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
~12
AVIATION
CURRENTLY MOSTLY MVFR/IFR STATUS ALONG THE COAST
AND VFR CONDITIONS INLAND. INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY DIURNAL WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND 06Z SAT. DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z FRI (40-60% CHANCE OF
MVFR). ANY IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE BRIEF, AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 01-03Z SAT. NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST BY 18Z FRI,
BRINGING GUSTS OF 20-25 KT UNTIL AROUND 06Z SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF LOW MARINE STRATUS REACHING
UP COLUMBIA RIVER, RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVER THE TERMINAL.
BY 18Z FRI, ANY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER THE TERMINAL WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY. DIURNAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TO 5-10 KT BY
18Z FRI AND POSSIBLY GUST UP TO 20 KT UNTIL 06Z SAT.
~12
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN OR COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON AND FOR THE
OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON BEYOND 10 NM THROUGH 11 PM
FRIDAY. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
RETURN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A WESTERLY SWELL THAT
WILL LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) BUILD SEAS ABOVE 10 FT BY MONDAY.
~12/10/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ252-
253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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