562
FXUS66 KPQR 221759 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1059 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES EASE DOWN A BIT AFTER
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WITH RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT, WHICH COULD AFFECT OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EARLY THIS FRIDAY
MORNING, THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS QUIET WITH BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
COMPARED WITH THURSDAY, THE AIR MASS IS STILL WARM BUT THE PEAK
HEAT HAS PASSED, AND TODAY SHOULD COME IN A FEW DEGREES LOWER
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY, WITH THE COAST
STARTING COOLER UNDER MARINE STRATUS WHILE INLAND VALLEYS WARM
EFFICIENTLY.
THE DRY STRETCH HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES TREND
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT REMAIN ABOVE LATE-
MAY AVERAGES, GENERALLY NEAR 80 TODAY FOR INLAND VALLEYS, THEN
SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALONG
THE COAST, MARINE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES, KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER CLEARING AT TIMES.
CHANGES ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FIRST ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN SPREAD INLAND MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE A BENEFICIAL, NON-IMPACTFUL RAIN
EVENT OVERALL, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT ONSET TIMING
AND TOTALS.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN (48 HOUR
TOTALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING) REMAIN HIGHEST OVER
TERRAIN: ROUGHLY 70-90% FOR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND
80-90% FOR THE CASCADES. PROBABILITIES DROP ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH ABOUT A 40-60% CHANCE FOR THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS AND AROUND A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, MONDAY MAY TURN BREEZY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. PROBABILITIES FAVOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH
(AROUND 50-70%), WITH A LOWER CHANCE (ROUGHLY 20-40%) OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SUGGESTIVE OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE MINOR ISSUES
FOR UNSECURED TENTS OR LIGHT OUTDOOR GEAR.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL SHARPLY WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS INTERIOR LOWLANDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN
TRENDS CLOSER TO SEASONAL MIDWEEK, THOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY TIES TO LINGERING LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
~12
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF
LATE FRIDAY MORNING DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHILE MARINE STRATUS LINGERS ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MARINE
STRATUS WILL HOLD ALONG THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT BREAKS TO VFR AT KONP, HENCE THE TEMPO IN THE
TAF THROUGH 21Z FRI. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KT
FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY, EXCEPT BREEZIER AT KONP WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT. TONIGHT, WINDS WEAKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS EASE AND
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG THE COAST AS MARINE STRATUS RE-
BUILDS. ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-17Z SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MOISTER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF LOW-END VFR CIGS
(LESS THAN 4 KFT) AFTER 12Z SAT. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-17Z SAT FOR KPDX. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT TODAY, WEAKENING BELOW 5 KT TONIGHT. -10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN OR COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON AND FOR THE
OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON BEYOND 10 NM THROUGH 11 PM
FRIDAY. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
RETURN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A WESTERLY SWELL THAT
WILL LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) BUILD SEAS ABOVE 10 FT BY MONDAY.
~12/10/DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ252-
253-271>273.
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