996
FXUS66 KPQR 221955
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1255 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH TEMPERATURES EASE DOWN A BIT AFTER
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT, WHICH COULD AFFECT OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WARM, DAYTIME HIGHS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY EVENING. AFTERWARDS, A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL HELP TO MITIGATE TEMPERATURES. INLAND HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S, AS MARINE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH UPWELLING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS LOOK TO "SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE"
BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH SUNDAY. /42
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOOKING TOWARDS THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS TO BE COOL AND WET AS THE
ALASKAN LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANYWHERE FROM 0.20" TO
1.00" WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD (5AM MON-5AM TUES). GENERALLY
SPEAKING, THE PROBABILITIES FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT
LEAST 0.25" ACROSS ARE 50% OR HIGHER, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
LOOKING AT THE PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50" OR MORE THE CHANCES
SHARPLY DECREASE WITH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DROPPING TO 10-25%
CHANCE, WHILE THE COAST, COAST RANGE AND CASCADES DROP TO AROUND
50-90% CHANCE. AS FOR THE PROBABILITIES FOR 1.00" OR MORE, FROM
LINCOLN CITY, OR TOWARDS THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA, THERE IS A
35-55% CHANCE FOR 24 HOUR TOTALS TO REACH 1.00" OR MORE. THE
OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR MEMORIAL DAY, IS THE POTENTIAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 70-300 J/KG. NOW, THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE COMING FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL, WHICH
HAVE A TENDENCY TO RUN "HOT". STILL, THIS IS A SEMI-FAVORABLE
PATTER WHICH DOES WARRANT A 15-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY. THE ALASKAN LOW, WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, MONDAY MAY TURN BREEZY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE FOR GUSTS
EXCEEDING 25 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A 30-65% CHANCE OF
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 60-80% CHANCE
ALONG THE COAST. FOCUSING IN ON 35 MPH GUSTS, INLAND LOCATIONS
HAVE A 5-15% CHANCE, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE A 20-40%
CHANCE. THESE SPEEDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SUGGESTIVE OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS, BUT COULD CREATE MINOR ISSUES FOR UNSECURED TENTS,
CANOPIES OR OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR GEAR.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY,
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND 0.05-0.15". WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MONDAY, SOME ENSEMBLES ARE
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN WHICH COULD PUSH THE PRECIPITATION MORE
INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE/ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP. OVERALL, EXPECT
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. /42
ON A SLIGHTLY PERSONAL NOTE, WITH MONDAY BEING MEMORIAL DAY, IT
IS TIME TO REMEMBER THOSE WHO SERVED THAT ARE NO LONGER WITH
US. I WANT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT IF YOU ARE A FELLOW VETERAN
OR KNOW A VETERAN THAT NEEDS HELP, YOU CAN ALWAYS CALL THE VA
CRISIS LINE BY DIALING 988 AND PRESSING 1 OR TEXT 838255
24/7/365. WE MUST TAKE CARE OF AND LOOK OUT THOSE WHO STOOD
BESIDES US, WHO CAME BEFORE US AND WHO WILL FOLLOW IN OUR
FOOTSTEPS. SEMPER FI. /42
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHILE MARINE STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE COAST BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MARINE STRATUS WILL HOLD ALONG THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
THOUGH THERE COULD BE INTERMITTENT BREAKS TO VFR AT KONP.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INLAND TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KT FOR MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT BREEZIER AT KONP WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT. TONIGHT, WINDS WEAKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS EASE AND
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG THE COAST AS MARINE STRATUS RE-
BUILDS. ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-17Z SAT. MORNING
STRATUS SHOULD BREAK OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 17-18Z SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MOISTER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF LOW-END
VFR CIGS (LESS THAN 4 KFT) AFTER 12Z SAT. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY GIVEN HOUR BETWEEN 12-17Z SAT FOR KPDX.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT TODAY, WEAKENING BELOW 5 KT
TONIGHT. -10
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN OR COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY, AND
THROUGH 11 PM FRIDAY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON AND
BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL RETURN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND A WESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL LIKELY (>80% CHANCE) BUILD
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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