018
FXUS66 KPQR 231629
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
929 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
WARM, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH COOLER COASTAL CONDITIONS WHERE MARINE
CLOUDS LINGER. A STRONG PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, BREEZIER WINDS, AND A
NOTABLE COOL-DOWN. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEEK DRIER.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EARLY THIS SATURDAY
MORNING, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, KEEPING THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED
NORTH AND SUPPORTING ANOTHER DRY DAY. THE BIGGEST NEAR-TERM
DETAIL IS THE ONSHORE COMPONENT AT LOW LEVELS: THAT WILL KEEP
THE COAST AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL VALLEYS SLOWER TO WARM, WHILE
INLAND AREAS RESPOND MORE READILY TO SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM AND DRY SETUP
WITH ONLY MODEST DAY TO DAY CHANGES. INLAND VALLEYS SHOULD
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS, WHILE
COASTAL HIGHS STAY ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER (MAINLY LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S) DEPENDING ON THE REACH AND PERSISTENCE OF MARINE
STRATUS AND OCEAN UPWELLING INFLUENCES. THE CASCADES AND
FOOTHILLS SHOULD LAND BETWEEN THOSE TWO REGIMES, MOST OFTEN MID
60S TO MID 70S. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
PATTERN TURNS MUCH MORE ACTIVE AS A BROAD GULF OF ALASKA LOW
PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD
ON MEMORIAL DAY, WITH A COOL, DAMP FEEL COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS (ROUGHLY
5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY) GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED ALONG THE COAST, COAST
RANGE, AND CASCADES. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCH ARE
70% OR HIGHER IN MANY AREAS, WHILE THE ODDS OF 0.50 INCH OR
MORE DROP TO AROUND 15-45% IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BUT REMAIN
MUCH HIGHER (70-90%) FOR THE COAST/COAST RANGE/CASCADES. THERE
IS ALSO A CORRIDOR FROM NEWPORT NORTH TOWARD SEASIDE WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR 1.00 INCH OR MORE REACH ROUGHLY 30-50%.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, MONDAY LOOKS BREEZY. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FAVOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREAS (AROUND 90%), WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST (ABOUT 70-90%) THAN INLAND (ROUGHLY 50-70%).
HIGHER-END GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH REMAIN A LOWER-PROBABILITY
OUTCOME INLAND (ABOUT 10-30%) BUT ARE MORE PLAUSIBLE AT THE
COAST (40-60%). WHILE NOT CURRENTLY POINTING TO ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS, THESE SPEEDS COULD STILL CREATE ISSUES FOR CANOPIES,
TENTS, AND OTHER UNSECURED GEAR. THESE EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE FOR 35 MPH GUSTS
HAVE INCREASED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO BEARS WATCHING MONDAY. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODEST CAPE
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND A LOW-END
(15-20%) THUNDER MENTION IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FALL SHARPLY WITH HIGHS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
BY TUESDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
AND ANOTHER LOW-END THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SOLUTIONS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN, WHICH WOULD SHIFT A PORTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY RATHER THAN KEEPING IT
CONCENTRATED ON MONDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK TRENDS TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND WARM SPELL.
~12
WITH MEMORIAL DAY APPROACHING, WE REMEMBER THOSE WHO SERVED AND
ARE NO LONGER WITH US. VETERANS IN CRISIS OR IN NEED OF SUPPORT
CAN CONTACT THE VETERANS CRISIS LINE 24/7 BY CALLING 988 AND
PRESSING 1 OR TEXTING 838255.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY.
THIS MORNING, MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS PUSHED INLAND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER AND HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE SW WA LOWLANDS AND SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS OF 16Z SAT, MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH OF KSLE, BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES
THROUGH MIDDAY, STRATUS SHOULD STOP SPREADING AND BEGIN DISSIPATING.
EXPECTING INLAND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19-21Z SAT. ALONG
THE COAST, PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING HOURS,
FIRST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z SAT THEN INLAND AROUND AND
NORTH OF KUAO AROUND 22Z SAT - 01Z SUN. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS, LOCALLY UP TO 25 KTS AROUND
KONP. EXPECTING WINDS TO DECREASE AROUND 04-08Z SUN. STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 21-23Z SAT AS THE
NORTH WINDS INCREASE. AS WINDS DECREASE, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF KAST, WHICH GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL
LIMIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MARINE STRATUS. THE EXCEPTION IS AROUND
AND NORTH OF KAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND
STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY 09-12Z SUN. HOWEVER, THERE'S A 25-
35% CHANCE MARINE STRATUS NEVER DISSIPATES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AT KAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MARINE STRATUS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING,
SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN THROUGH 19-21Z SAT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 18 KTS AROUND 23Z SAT - 01Z SUN, DECREASING BY 06Z SUN. -03
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN OR COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY. SEAS 6
TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY
SWELL THAT WILL LIKELY (>80% CHANCE) BUILD SEAS ABOVE 10 FT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 34 KT ON MONDAY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE FOULWEATHER OR.
~12/10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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