216
FXUS66 KPQR 240447 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
947 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH RELATIVELY COOLER COASTAL CONDITIONS WHERE
MARINE CLOUDS LINGER. A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN, BREEZIER WINDS, AND A NOTABLE COOL-DOWN. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY, WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MARINE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS
RATHER STATIC. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST FOR THE WEEK
ON SUNDAY WITH INLAND VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WHILE COASTAL HIGHS STAY ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES COOLER, MAINLY LOW
60S TO LOW 70S. THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD LAND BETWEEN
THOSE TWO REGIMES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EXPANSIVE MARINE STRATUS THIS
MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IF
THE REACH AND PERSISTENCE OF MARINE STRATUS IS SIMILAR OR
GREATER THAN TODAY, THEN THAT COULD EASILY KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS
5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, BUT COULD
SEE SOME "AGGRESSIVE DRIZZLE" ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE PAC NW AS A BROAD, GULF OF ALASKA LOW DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA FOR MEMORIAL DAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS (ROUGHLY 5 AM
MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY) GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FAVORED ALONG THE COAST, COAST
RANGE, AND CASCADES. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCH ARE
60-90%, WHILE THE CHANCES OF 0.50 INCH OR MORE DROP TO AROUND
5-35% IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BUT REMAIN MUCH HIGHER AROUND
70-90% FOR THE COAST/COAST RANGE/CASCADES. THERE IS ALSO A
CORRIDOR FROM NEWPORT NORTH TOWARD SEASIDE WHERE PROBABILITIES
FOR 1.00 INCH OR MORE REACH ROUGHLY 30-50%.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, MONDAY LOOKS BREEZY.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FAVOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREAS (90-99%), WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST (70-90%) THAN INLAND (40-60%). GUSTS OF 35 MPH
OR GREATER REMAIN A LOW FOR INLAND LOCATIONS (5-20%) BUT ARE
MORE PROBABLE ALONG THE COAST (35-55%). WHILE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECASTING WIND ADVISORY LEVEL, THESE SPEEDS COULD STILL
CREATE ISSUES FOR CANOPIES, TENTS, AND OTHER UNSECURED GEAR.
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-39 MPH FOR DURATIONS OF 1 HOUR OR LONGER.
OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 45-57 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.
WE DO NOT ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COAST.
BY TUESDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN,IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
AS SUCH, THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE CASCADES STARTING LATE TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THE FORECAST TRENDS TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE/ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND WARM SPELL. /42~12
ON A SLIGHTLY PERSONAL NOTE, WITH MONDAY BEING MEMORIAL DAY, IT
IS TIME TO REMEMBER THOSE WHO SERVED THAT ARE NO LONGER WITH
US. I WANT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT IF YOU ARE A FELLOW VETERAN
OR KNOW A VETERAN THAT NEEDS HELP, YOU CAN ALWAYS CALL THE VA
CRISIS LINE BY DIALING 988 AND PRESSING 1 OR TEXT 838255
24/7/365. WE MUST TAKE CARE OF AND LOOK OUT THOSE WHO STOOD
BESIDES US, WHO CAME BEFORE US AND WHO WILL FOLLOW IN OUR
FOOTSTEPS. SEMPER FI. /42
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT,
AND LOWER MVFR CIGS ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND KAST TERMINALS NORTH OF KTMK OVERNIGHT WITH A
20% CHANCE OF THOSE CONDITIONS LINGERING AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST IN THE EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE CIGS TO DROP ALONG THE COAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AND BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. MUCH OF THOSE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VERY FEW CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
BUT THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS REFORMING.
-27
MARINE
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY, BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 8 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS, STRONGEST NORTH OF CAPE
FOULWEATHER, WITH A 35-50% CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS, MAINLY
ISOLATED AND RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM
MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO
ISSUE A GALE WATCH. WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RISE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE'S HIGH
CONFIDENCE (90+% CHANCE) OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING
13 FEET. ADDITIONALLY THERE'S AROUND A 25% CHANCE SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 18-19 FEET FOR LOCATIONS 20 NM AND
BEYOND WEST OF THE COAST, AND THERE'S AROUND A 10% CHANCE THEY
COULD RISE TO 20 FEET FOR LOCATIONS 30 NM AND BEYOND WEST OF THE
COAST. WAVES FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 10-12 FEET. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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