522
FXUS66 KPQR 251843 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1142 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
..UPDATED PUBLIC, AVIATION, MARINE DISCUSSIONS
SYNOPSIS
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
SPREAD INLAND TODAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS AND A SHARP DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS PERSIST TUESDAY WITH A LOW-END (10-20%)
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE, THEN A GRADUAL RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MORNING UPDATE
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 11:40 AM DEPICTS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN IS ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO THE I-5 CORRIDOR BY 12-2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREEZIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN TRANSITIONS INTO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
AFTER 2-3 PM TODAY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ERRATIC WINDS, AND/OR SMALL HAIL. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW. -10
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EARLY THIS MONDAY
MORNING, THE REMAINING INFLUENCE OF LAST NIGHT’S RIDGE IS
QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE DRIVER
FOR TODAY’S WETTER, COOLER WEATHER.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK, THEN
EXPAND INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
TIMING SUPPORTS ONSET ALONG THE COAST ROUGHLY 7-9 AM, WITH THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR LOWLANDS SEEING STEADIER RAIN DEVELOP
AROUND 12-2 PM. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW THIS PAST WEEKEND’S TEMPERATURES.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY REMAIN IN A BENEFICIAL
BUT NON-HAZARDOUS RANGE. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 48-HOUR AMOUNTS
(ROUGHLY 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM WEDNESDAY) AROUND 0.15 TO 0.80
INCHES, HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCH ARE ABOUT 35-75% ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND 70-95% ACROSS THE COAST/COAST RANGE/CASCADES. FOR
0.50 INCH OR MORE, ODDS ARE LOWER IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
(AROUND 5-35%) BUT MUCH HIGHER FOR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE
(60-90%), WITH THE CASCADES GENERALLY 25-75%. THE BEST SIGNAL
FOR 1.0 INCH OR MORE REMAINS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST FROM
FLORENCE NORTH TOWARD SEASIDE, WHERE PROBABILITIES RUN ABOUT
10-30%.
WINDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
AND EXPOSED HEADLANDS. PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH FOR GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (ROUGHLY 70-99%). GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH ARE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST (ABOUT 60-90%)
THAN INLAND (15-30%), AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
STILL MORE FAVORED ALONG THE COAST (30-60%) COMPARED TO INLAND
(5-10%). THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT COULD STILL BE DISRUPTIVE FOR TENTS, CANOPIES, AND
OTHER UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING AND WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT. THAT CHANGE
INCREASES INSTABILITY MODESTLY, AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADES
FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE FAVORS A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND AS WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW
RETURN. EVEN WITH THAT WARM-UP, DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY STAY
SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARM SPELL, WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 85-99% CHANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE RELATIVE TO THE WEEKEND (BELOW 80 DEGREES). THERE
ARE EARLY HINTS THAT THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN AGAIN LATE WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, BUT RECENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO TREND TOWARD THE TROUGH WEAKENING AND
THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED REGARDING A TROUGH LATE WEEK, CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEAKENING OF THIS UPCOMING MIDWEEK RIDGE HAS DECREASED AS THE
LATE WEEK TROUGH LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. ~12
ON A SLIGHTLY PERSONAL NOTE, WITH MONDAY BEING MEMORIAL DAY, IT
IS TIME TO REMEMBER THOSE WHO SERVED THAT ARE NO LONGER WITH
US. I WANT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT IF YOU ARE A FELLOW VETERAN
OR KNOW A VETERAN THAT NEEDS HELP, YOU CAN ALWAYS CALL THE VA
CRISIS LINE BY DIALING 988 AND PRESSING 1 OR TEXT 838255
24/7/365. WE MUST TAKE CARE OF AND LOOK OUT THOSE WHO STOOD
BESIDES US, WHO CAME BEFORE US AND WHO WILL FOLLOW IN OUR
FOOTSTEPS. SEMPER FI. /42
AVIATION
MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND VFR INLAND AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO FALL AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT,
GENERALLY AFTER 22-23Z ALONG THE COAST AND AFTER 02-04Z INLAND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-END VFR FOR THE MOST PART, POSSIBLE
HIGH-END MVFR IN A HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN.
MIX OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT CONTINUED WINDS AROUND 14-17 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
25 KT AT THE COAST UNTIL 03-06Z TUE, WHILE INLAND WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 03Z TUE.
SOME AREAS WITHIN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE MAY BE EVEN WINDIER WITH
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING AS HIGH AS 30 KT AT 3000 FT.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z MON, WITH MOST TERMINALS AT THE LOW END OF THIS
PROBABILITY RANGE. EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH INCREASING SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
AFFILIATED WITH THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 03Z TUE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO LOW-END VFR
AFTER 20Z MON WITH AROUND A 10-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. RAIN IN THE
AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VIS AT TIMES. 15-20%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z MONDAY, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. EXPECT MORE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ~19/12
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS,
LEADING TO DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH 5 PM. A WESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO
THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PUSHING SEAS IN THE MID
TEENS AROUND 14-16 SECONDS. HAVE UPGRADED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL. THE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 11 AM
TUESDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. THERE
IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT REDUCE VISIBILITY, ERRATIC WINDS, AND/OR SMALL
HAIL.SEAS SUBSIDE TO 10-12 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO WEDNESDAY. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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