789
FXUS66 KPQR 252054
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
154 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY, BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RADAR, SATELLITE, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
BETWEEN NOW AND 3 PM, THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL, WHILE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND, EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 MPH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND
STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
THE CASCADES.
AFTER 2-4 PM TODAY, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT EXITS EASTWARD. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WITH
THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. BASED ON REFS GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING PROFILES, CAPE
APPEARS LIMITED (50-110 J/KG) THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG THE NORTH OR/SOUTH WA COAST, INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON,
AND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ERRATIC WINDS,
AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TURNS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OREGON AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. WILL SEE ANOTHER
10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AM-5 PM. CHANCES ARE BETTER ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST HIGHER AROUND 100-200 J/KG.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS DOWN INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WARMEST FROM THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NORTHWARD. CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 15-25%, AND 30-50% ON THURSDAY. THE REST OF
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. WHILE WEDNESDAY REMAINS PREDOMINATELY DRY
AND WARM, WILL NOTE THAT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
30-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES
STILL TREND DRY ON THURSDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO MOVING INTO THE I-5 CORRIDOR. IF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD, CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (LOWER 70S AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS).
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN
ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
BASIN LOW, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE DESPITE THE TROUGHING. -10
ON A SLIGHTLY PERSONAL NOTE, WITH MONDAY BEING MEMORIAL DAY, IT
IS TIME TO REMEMBER THOSE WHO SERVED THAT ARE NO LONGER WITH
US. I WANT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT IF YOU ARE A FELLOW VETERAN
OR KNOW A VETERAN THAT NEEDS HELP, YOU CAN ALWAYS CALL THE VA
CRISIS LINE BY DIALING 988 AND PRESSING 1 OR TEXT 838255
24/7/365. WE MUST TAKE CARE OF AND LOOK OUT THOSE WHO STOOD
BESIDES US, WHO CAME BEFORE US AND WHO WILL FOLLOW IN OUR
FOOTSTEPS. SEMPER FI. /42
AVIATION
MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND VFR INLAND AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
WHILE TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-END VFR FOR THE MOST PART, POSSIBLE HIGH-
END MVFR IN A HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN. MIX OF SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
CONTINUED WINDS AROUND 14-17 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AT THE
COAST UNTIL 03-06Z TUE, WHILE INLAND WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 03Z TUE.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH MOST TERMINALS AT THE LOW END OF THIS
PROBABILITY RANGE. EXPECT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH CIGS DROPPING CLOSER TO 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 03Z
TUE. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY PASSING
SHOWER TODAY. RAIN IN THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VIS AT TIMES. 15-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. -19
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS,
LEADING TO DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH 5 PM. A WESTERLY
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PUSHING SEAS IN THE MID TEENS AROUND 14-16 SECONDS. HAVE UPGRADED
THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL. THE
WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME,
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
REDUCE VISIBILITY, ERRATIC WINDS, AND/OR SMALL HAIL.SEAS SUBSIDE
TO 10-12 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
WEDNESDAY. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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