442
FXUS66 KPQR 260458
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND HAZARDS.
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY, BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RADAR, SATELLITE, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
BETWEEN NOW AND 3 PM, THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
I-5 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL, WHILE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS FRONT MOVES INLAND, EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO INCREASE UP TO 20-25 MPH ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND
STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
THE CASCADES.
AFTER 2-4 PM TODAY, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT EXITS EASTWARD. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT WITH
THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA. BASED ON REFS GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING PROFILES, CAPE
APPEARS LIMITED (50-110 J/KG) THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG THE NORTH OR/SOUTH WA COAST, INLAND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON,
AND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ERRATIC WINDS,
AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TURNS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OREGON AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. WILL SEE ANOTHER
10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AM-5 PM. CHANCES ARE BETTER ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST HIGHER AROUND 100-200 J/KG.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS DOWN INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WARMEST FROM THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NORTHWARD. CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO ON
WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 15-25%, AND 30-50% ON THURSDAY. THE REST OF
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. WHILE WEDNESDAY REMAINS PREDOMINATELY DRY
AND WARM, WILL NOTE THAT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A
30-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES
STILL TREND DRY ON THURSDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO MOVING INTO THE I-5 CORRIDOR. IF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD, CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (LOWER 70S AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS).
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN
ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
BASIN LOW, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE DESPITE THE TROUGHING. -10
AVIATION
SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION HAS LEAD TO A
MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS/VIS THIS EVENING. THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS, THOUGH
COULD LAST AS LATE AS 18Z TUE. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM ANY PASSING SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS
THAN 15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS. NO THUNDER HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND
RATHER JUST SEEING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE RAIN AND WIND,
SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY HAS BEEN DETECTED. MVFR AND EVEN
SOME AREAS OF IFR VIS HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS
DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE STRATUS. NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO FILTER TOO FAR INLAND, BUT THE EFFECTS MAY BE OBSERVED IN
SOME INLAND RUNWAYS NEAR THE COAST. PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH
THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL ALSO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THUS THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LENGTH OF TIME THEY
WILL LAST THOUGH AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL QUITE WELL
MIXED WHICH WILL COUNTER ACT SOME OF THE SETTLING.
THROUGH TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TODAY MOVES SOUTHWARD. AREAS WITHIN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10 KT AFTER 18Z TUE.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK (15% CHANCE) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE,
BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR WITHIN THE VICINITY, IT IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR WITH SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR TEMPORARILY AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT. THERE IS AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z
TUE AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SETTLE. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUD BREAKS
PRIOR TO THAT TIME, THEN THOSE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. NOT
EXPECTING FOG AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER 18Z TUE WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT. SPEEDS ARE
NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF LLWS, THOUGH THOSE LANDING ON
E-W RUNWAYS MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED WEAK LLWS OF +/- 5 KT. -27
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE WATERS,
LEADING TO DECREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH 5 PM. A WESTERLY
SWELL MOVES INTO THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PUSHING SEAS IN THE MID TEENS AROUND 14-16 SECONDS. HAVE UPGRADED
THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL. THE
WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME,
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
REDUCE VISIBILITY, ERRATIC WINDS, AND/OR SMALL HAIL.SEAS SUBSIDE
TO 10-12 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
WEDNESDAY. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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