903
FXUS66 KPQR 301709 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1009 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. WARMING TREND WITH MODERATE
HEATRISK ON TUESDAY FOR MANY URBAN AREAS. SOME MODELS SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH WILL COME INTO
PLAY LATER IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, TODAY WE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW BUT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. IF ANY DOES FALL, ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL
WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE SITTING AT AROUND 0.01" FOR AREAS
WITHIN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WITHIN THE NEXT 24-HOURS.
SUNDAY REMAINS ON TRACK TO SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. OVERALL WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IN COMBINATION WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS BEING ALONG THE COAST AND
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING A 25-40% CHANCE
OF GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER. DUE TO CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COOLING WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEING IN THE UPPER 40S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. MONDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WHICH HAS KEPT OVERALL HEATRISK
GENERALLY MINOR THROUGHOUT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEAT RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON IN URBAN AREAS. BASED ON
THE CURRENT NBM RUN, THERE IS NOW AROUND A 5 DEGREE F SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE ON MONDAY WHICH REPRESENTS
THE "MOST LIKELY" RANGE. OVERALL HIGHS INLAND WILL BE AROUND
80-85 DEG F EXCEPT IN THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO WHERE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS CLOSER TO 88 DEG F. THERE IS AROUND A 10%
CHANCE OF A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEG F OR GREATER IN
PORTLAND. THE COAST AND CASCADES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY IS MARKED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE OVERALL
SPREAD PROBABILITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH AROUND A 50-60% CHANCE THAT THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER AREA
WILL SEE HIGHS OF 90 DEG F OR HIGHER, AROUND 50% IN SALEM,
45-50% IN LONGVIEW, AND 10% IN EUGENE. THERE IS CURRENTLY
MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND/ VANCOUVER METRO
AREA, LOWER COWLITZ AND COLUMBIA VALLEY, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE
GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO HAS LOWERED TO LESS THAN 5% DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES LOWERING
SLIGHTLY AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 60 DEGREES.
MODERATE HEATRISK MEANS THAT THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT
COOLING AND HYDRATION MAY BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAT. THEREFORE,
TAKE PRECAUTIONS ON TUESDAY IF PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES - ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.
-27
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IF YOU'RE NOT A FAN OF
THE HEAT, REST ASSURED THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE
SEASONABLE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT ROBUST, IT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE AND WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SOME MOISTURE. IF RAIN DOES FALL AT THIS
POINT ACCUMULATION IS NOT SIGNIFICANT, BUT THAT EASILY COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THAT LOW EVOLVES. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
THOUGH ARE THE CHALLENGES THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS FACE WHEN
ENTERING INTO A WARM, DRY, HIGH PRESSURE SCENARIO. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD ERODE MORE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND
THEREFORE THE IMPACTS WOULD BE LESS SIGNIFICANT. WITH THAT BEING
SAID THOUGH, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, THE
MEAN TEMPERATURES SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.-27
AVIATION
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z SAT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
EXPECT GUSTS ALONG THE COAST FROM 21Z SAT-00Z SUN THROUGH 04Z-06Z
SUNDAY AND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TO START AROUND 00Z-02Z SUN
THROUGH 05Z-07Z SUNDAY. KEUG AND K77S THERE IS A CHANCE (APPROX
10%) FOR VCFG DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z-14Z SUN HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING IT REACHING THE TERMINALS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT STARTING
AROUND 02Z SUN THROUGH AROUND 07Z SUNDAY. /42
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN. MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY
WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THERE MAY BE
A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 25 KT (LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE) IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. SUNDAY IS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. WE WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 25% CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS IN PZZ273 IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, THE
START TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IS UNCERTAIN AND
THUS THE LACK OF AN ADVISORY, HOWEVER THAT WILL COME INTO BETTER
RESOLUTION TODAY WITH THE INFLUX OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
DURING THIS TIME, THE WIND WAVE WILL INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH
THE PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. EVEN WITH THIS BEING THE
CASE, THERE IS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE OF COMBINED SEAS EXCEEDING
10 FT.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT OVERALL WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE MARINE
ENVIRONMENT. WE WILL SEE THOSE 30 KT GUSTS DISSIPATE THOUGH ON
MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AS A GULF
OF ALASKA LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE WATERS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE IT IS
ERODING AS IT NEARS ONCE AGAIN, MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE
IMPACTS. -27
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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