712
FXUS66 KPQR 031655 AAB
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
954 AM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
THE TERRAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH HAS HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS ACTIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AFTER A WARM TUESDAY,
TODAY CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE COOLER AND MUCH MORE MOIST. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH STRATUS SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR OVER THE
WATERS AND THE COAST. WHILE RADAR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS RIGHT NOW,
THERE HASN'T BEEN PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE DUE TO IT
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WILL NEED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING RAIN. WITH THIS RAIN, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN AREAS THAT ARE NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNED LIKE THE
COAST AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WE COULD SEE ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS THOUGH GENERALLY THE BREEZIER WINDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
TO THE COAST. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS BETWEEN A
15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH LESS
THAN A 15% CHANCE ELSEWHERE. IN THE MOST CURRENT FORECAST THE
CASCADES HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE RAIN. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE NAM NEST SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITHOUT A SPECIFIC TREND. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 5AM TO 3 PM.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH, WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY
AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED
WITH LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE A BIT OF A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DROPS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST. WILE ORGANIZED ALOFT, AT
THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE IS LESS REALIZED AND THEREFORE
SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY BE A BIT MORE CHAOTIC. A COMPONENT THAT
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IS THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH WHICH, IF IT MANIFESTS, COULD MEAN WE SEE
MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) FROM
THE ECMWF SHOWS CLIMATOLOGICALLY ABNORMAL CAPE ON FRIDAY AND
IT'S GENERALLY CONCENTRATED TO THE COAST AND MARINE WATERS.
DIVERGENT FLOW COMBINED WITH ENHANCED VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASED WITHIN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY. IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO SEE GUSTY WINDS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH WITHIN THOSE AREAS AND ALONG THE PEAKS OF
THE CASCADES. THE NBM SHOWS THE MEAN WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER
GOOD RIVER VALLEY AROUND 40 MPH WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (THE
HIGH END SOLUTION) IS AROUND 45 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A
COMPUTING BIAS IN THESE AREAS, BUT GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE AMOUNT OF SUPPORT IN THIS SYSTEM IT ISN'T UNREASONABLE
TO EXPECTED ENHANCED WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -27
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING
IN THE MORNING. AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATION WITH THE 10TH PERCENTILE (DRIEST ENSEMBLES) SHOWING
0.00 INCH OF RAIN AND THE 90TH (WETTEST SOLUTION) IS CLOSER TO
0.25-0.50 INCH. OVERALL THOUGH, THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE HAS
DECREASED EACH DAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS WE SIT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE WHERE
LESS OF THE MOISTURE IS. AT THAT TIME THOUGH WE ARE SITTING IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WHICH IS OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ENERGETIC WEATHER. COMBINE THIS WITH THE
DIVERGENT FLOW, RAIN, AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS, CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. OF THE TWO
DAYS (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY), SATURDAY IS THE MOST POTENT DAY WITH
CAPE EXCEEDING 150 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TRANSITIONING INTO SUNDAY WE WILL SEE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER, THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEXT UP TO BAT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE LOW LOCATIONS,
THERE IS QUITE THE SPREAD BETWEEN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW THE CONCENTRATION OF POSSIBILITIES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A GREAT LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHAT THIS WILL MEAN SPECIFICALLY, BUT THE
OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN WILL FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIALLY MORE RAIN WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. -27
AVIATION
RADAR IMAGERY AT 1645Z WEDNESDAY DEPICTED SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. SOME SHOWERS WERE
PUSHING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS WERE
MAINLY PRODUCING EITHER VIRGA OR SPRINKLES WITH MINIMAL AVIATION
IMPACTS. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ASIDE FROM IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KONP. CHANCES FOR IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY, CHANCES FOR CEILINGS
BELOW 3000 FT INCREASE TO 25-50% FOR INLAND TAF SITES, EXCEPT
60-75% AT KSLE AND KEUG. CHANCES FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT RANGE
BETWEEN 75-95% AT KAST AND KONP BETWEEN 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z
THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES NOW THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. THERE IS
A 30-40% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT BETWEEN 08-17Z THURSDAY
AS LOWER CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS ATTEMPT
BACKBUILDING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE KPDX TERMINAL. -23
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT AS A DECAYING FRONT
TRAVERSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM,
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE PASSING SHOWERS, OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WIND GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. AS THE FRONT EXITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS OF 4-6 FT AT 10-12 SECONDS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE A MORE WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS THEN BUILD TO 6-8 FT AT 10 SECONDS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
REPEATED SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
WINDS, MOST NOTABLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
ACTIVE PATTERN, WINDS AND SEAS ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN BELOW
HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS ASIDE FROM CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
20 KT WHEN BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. -27/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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