846
FXUS66 KPQR 071011
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
311 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD. STEADY RAIN RETURNS ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAINTAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THIS POINT
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS COME ROARING BACK
INTO FOCUS JUNE 11-15 WITH INCREASING HEAT RELATED CONCERNS NEXT
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS. IT MIGHT BE TIME
TO BRUSH OFF THOSE AC UNITS AGAIN - JUST SAYING.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONDITIONS HAVE CERTAINLY
CALMED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. JUST A FEW WEAK
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON COASTLINE. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY LIKELY MAINTAINS THESE DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS - ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND 50S
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE FURTHER CONVERGED REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL, LIKELY ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS (85-95% CHANCE) WEST TO EAST BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDER BRINGING AN UMBRELLA (OR
JUST A RAIN JACKET, THIS IS THE PNW AFTER ALL) BECAUSE SHOULD
THE FORECAST HOLD IT'LL BE A SOGGY ONE.
WE THEN REMAIN IN A COOL AND SHOWERY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING OVERHEAD. IT'S WORTH
QUICKLY NOTING THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHORT-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THESE WOULD BE SUB-
SEVERE AND ISOLATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR. THE LATEST NBM 48-HR PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AMOUNTS OVER
0.50" PEAK 5 AM PDT MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, SHOWING A
WIDESPREAD 80-95% CHANCE FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST
WA AND NORTHWEST OR. EVEN NBM PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 1" OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS SAME 48-HR TIME PERIOD ARE DECENT AND HAVE
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST; 30-55% CHANCE
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND 70-90% ALONG THE CASCADES AND
OREGON COAST/COAST RANGE. ALL IN ALL, CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
FOR A PERIOD OF FAIRLY WET/COOL WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WE MAY END UP THANKFUL FOR IT IN
RETROSPECT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS FOR HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO TAKE
HOLD BY NEXT WEEKEND. -99
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR JUNE
11-15 FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WARMING EACH DAY BEFORE PEAKING SOMETIME EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK (SUN/MON). HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO EXACTLY HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET, WHICH COULD WIND UP
ANYWHERE IN THE MID 80S, 90S, OR EVEN NEAR 100 FOR INLAND
VALLEYS. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREES OR WARMER JUNE 13-15. BY
JUNE 15, PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES PEAK NEAR
60-80% FOR INLAND VALLEYS PER THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE, AND LESS
THAN 10% AT THE COAST. WITH THE INCREASE IN BOTH DAYTIME AND
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A 5-25% CHANCE FOR MAJOR
HEATRISK OR HIGHER SATURDAY JUNE 13, A 20-50% CHANCE SUNDAY JUNE
14, AND A 20-55% CHANCE MONDAY JUNE 15. THOSE WHO PLAN ON
SWIMMING IN LAKES OR RIVERS TO COOL DOWN SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF
THE DANGERS THAT COME WITH COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND/OR SWIFT CURRENTS. ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT
AND/OR HAS OUTDOOR PLANS JUNE 12-15 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS IT CONTINUES
TO GET REFINED AND IMPACTS FURTHER REALIZED. -99/23
AVIATION
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE'LL BE A FEW PERIODS TO STILL KEEP AN EYE
ON. THE FIRST ONE OF THESE IS THESE IS EARLY MORNING AS THE
RECENT RAINFALL MIXED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS (20-40%
CHANCE) BETWEEN 10-16Z, OR ISOLATED SUNRISE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS (10-20% CHANCE). ANY LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY ~18-19Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG THE COAST, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING
OF ANY CATEGORICAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING TURN MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT 5-10
KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY IN THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE'S STILL A 10-20% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SOMETIME BETWEEN 10-18Z SUN. ANY LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18-19Z SUN. WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 5-7 KNOTS. -99
MARINE
HEADED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FACILITATES PERIODS OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS AT
TIMES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
FOR MUCH OF TODAY THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN A LULL BETWEEN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD. STARTING THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WITH WIND GUST UP TO 20-30
KNOTS PEAKING MONDAY MORNING. THUS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS OF 4-8 FT AT 8-10 SECONDS CONTINUE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADS TO A SWITCH TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS GENERALLY HOLD BETWEEN 13-20
KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE, TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
DIURNAL WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, REACHING
15-25 KT WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS OFF
THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SEAS OF 6-8 FT AT 10 SECONDS WITH A
DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL LOOK TO CONTINUE AS WELL. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ252-
253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page