328
FXUS66 KPQR 071635
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
935 AM PDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVERHEAD. STEADY RAIN RETURNS
ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAINTAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THIS POINT
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS COME ROARING BACK
INTO FOCUS JUNE 11-15 WITH INCREASING HEAT RELATED CONCERNS NEXT
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONDITIONS HAVE CERTAINLY
CALMED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR IMAGERY NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. JUST A FEW WEAK RADAR
RETURNS ACROSS THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
OVERHEAD TODAY LIKELY MAINTAINS THESE DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS - ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. HOWEVER, CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM,
RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND 50S TO NEAR 60
ALONG THE COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
FURTHER CONVERGED REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL, LIKELY ARRIVING MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS (85-95% CHANCE) WEST TO EAST BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDER BRINGING AN UMBRELLA (OR
JUST A RAIN JACKET, THIS IS THE PNW AFTER ALL) BECAUSE SHOULD
THE FORECAST HOLD IT'LL BE A SOGGY ONE.
WE THEN REMAIN IN A COOL AND SHOWERY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING OVERHEAD. IT'S WORTH
QUICKLY NOTING THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHORT-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THESE WOULD BE SUB-
SEVERE AND ISOLATED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR. THE LATEST NBM 48-HR PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AMOUNTS OVER
0.50" PEAK 5 AM PDT MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY, SHOWING A
WIDESPREAD 80-95% CHANCE FOR ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST
WA AND NORTHWEST OR. EVEN NBM PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 1" OF RAIN
THROUGH THIS SAME 48-HR TIME PERIOD ARE DECENT AND HAVE
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST; 30-55% CHANCE
ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS AND 70-90% ALONG THE CASCADES AND
OREGON COAST/COAST RANGE. ALL IN ALL, CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
FOR A PERIOD OF FAIRLY WET/COOL WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WE MAY END UP THANKFUL FOR IT IN
RETROSPECT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS FOR HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO TAKE
HOLD BY NEXT WEEKEND. -99
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING
TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR JUNE
11-15 FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WARMING EACH DAY BEFORE PEAKING SOMETIME EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK (SUN/MON). HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO EXACTLY HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET, WHICH COULD WIND UP
ANYWHERE IN THE MID 80S, 90S, OR EVEN NEAR 100 FOR INLAND
VALLEYS. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREES OR WARMER JUNE 13-15. BY
JUNE 15, PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES PEAK NEAR
60-80% FOR INLAND VALLEYS PER THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE, AND LESS
THAN 10% AT THE COAST. WITH THE INCREASE IN BOTH DAYTIME AND
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A 5-25% CHANCE FOR MAJOR
HEATRISK OR HIGHER SATURDAY JUNE 13, A 20-50% CHANCE SUNDAY JUNE
14, AND A 20-55% CHANCE MONDAY JUNE 15. THOSE WHO PLAN ON
SWIMMING IN LAKES OR RIVERS TO COOL DOWN SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF
THE DANGERS THAT COME WITH COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND/OR SWIFT CURRENTS. ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT
AND/OR HAS OUTDOOR PLANS JUNE 12-15 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS IT CONTINUES
TO GET REFINED AND IMPACTS FURTHER REALIZED. -99/23
AVIATION
LARGELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO BREAK UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL RISE TO 5-10 KT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ALONG
THE COAST, AND OUT OF THE NORTH INLAND, THEN EASE BELOW 5 KT
AGAIN TONIGHT. CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST BY 12-15Z MON, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RISING TO 5-10 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS WILL
INCREASE TO 25-45% ALONG THE COAST AND 15-25% AT INLAND
TERMINALS AFTER 15Z MON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES FROM THE WEST,
FOLLOWED BY RAIN BEGINNING BY 13-15Z MON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KT TODAY WILL EASE OVERNIGHT, THEN RISE OUT OF
THE SOUTH NEAR 5 KT MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE TO 20-25% BY 17-18Z
MON. -36
MARINE
HEADED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FACILITATES PERIODS OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS
AT TIMES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, FOR MUCH OF TODAY THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN A LULL
BETWEEN FRONTAL SYSTEMS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVERHEAD. STARTING THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WITH WIND GUST
UP TO 20-30 KNOTS PEAKING MONDAY MORNING. THUS, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS OF 4-8 FT AT 8-10 SECONDS
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL.
A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADS TO A
SWITCH TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS GENERALLY HOLD
BETWEEN 13-20 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE, TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
DIURNAL WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, REACHING
15-25 KT WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SEAS OF 6-8 FT AT 10 SECONDS WITH
A DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL LOOK TO CONTINUE AS WELL. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ252-
253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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