073
FXUS66 KPQR 081036
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
336 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND WET TO HOT AND DRY. THIS IS A SIMPLE,
CONCISE, BUT ACCURATE SUMMATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
COME AS WE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS AND BEYOND.
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER SOGGY AND COOL, ESPECIALLY BY
JUNE STANDARDS, AS STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS OVER WESTERN
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BEFORE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45 MPH.
WHILE THE COOLER/WETTER FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS UNUSUALLY
SPRING-LIKE, WE HAVE TO PAY THE PROVERBIAL PIPER AT SOME POINT,
AND IT APPEARS HE'S COMING TO COLLECT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAT
EVENT IN THE JUNE 13-16 TIMEFRAME - A STARK CONTRAST TO HOW THIS
WEEK BEGINS. DON'T GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD AND START PREPARING FOR
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS, YOU'LL THANK YOURSELF LATER.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COOL, WET, AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SUB-1000MB
SURFACE LOW QUICKLY BEARING DOWN ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. MODELING SYSTEMS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED SURFACED LOW TRACKING
OVER THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS LONG BEACH
PENINSULA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE LARGE SWATH OF STEADY
STRATIFORM RAIN AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR AROUND SUNRISE
AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
TURNING OUR FOCUS BACK TO THAT SURFACE LOW, AS IT SWINGS INTO
THE COASTLINE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDED BY 40-50 KNOT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR 850MB (A NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL
JET FEATURE) LIKELY FACILITATES BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
FIRST AT THE COAST, THEN INLAND. THE PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS S COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AMPLIFYING VERTICAL
MIXING (AGAIN, REMEMBER THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE) WHILE THE N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS. WHILE THE
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY HAS GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS, THIS IS A SCENARIO WHEN
WINDS COULD OVERPERFORM (20-40% CHANCE) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALIGNMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RECORD GUSTS CLOSER TO
40-45 MPH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, AND IN THE CENTRAL/NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DURING THE 4-10PM TIMEFRAME. IT MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME THIS
MORNING TO SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS IN YOUR YARD IF YOU LIVE IN A
LOCATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW TO HOLD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE MAINLY INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS WHICH IS 4 TO
8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT LEAST THE
LATEST NBM POPS SUGGEST SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TOTALS CONCERNED, THE VAST MAJORITY
FALLS BETWEEN 5AM THIS MORNING AND 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM DURING THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0" OVER INLAND VALLEYS, AROUND 1"
AT THE COAST, AND 1-2" IN THE COAST RANGE, WILLAPA HILLS, AND
CASCADES. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 0.5" OF RAIN HAVE SETTLED
AROUND 85-95%, AND PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE
25-50% OVER THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY INTO PORTLAND METRO
(ONLY 10% NEAR EUGENE), AND 80-95% ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE,
WILLAPA HILLS, AND CASCADES. WE'LL DEFINITELY TAKE ANY RAINFALL
WE CAN GET THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND LOOKING AHEAD IT MAY BE THE
LAST WE'LL SEE FOR AWHILE. -99
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND THEN IT GETS HOT.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THE HEAT TRULY KICKS IN, EXPECT RATHER PLEASANT
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, EXCEPT 60S AT THE COAST - ENJOY. FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PACIFIC, WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR EAST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HEATING UP SIGNIFICANTLY JUNE 13-15. THIS IS WHEN THE
LREF MEAN SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 97-98TH
PERCENTILE AND THE NBM SHOWS A 60-90% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND LESS THAN A
10% CHANCE AT THE COAST. IN FACT THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES JUNE 14-15 FOR INLAND
VALLEYS, SUGGESTING A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID OR
EVEN UPPER 60S WILL OFFER MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ANY MEANS OF COOLING. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES FOR A
MODERATE HEATRISK OR HIGHER PEAK NEAR 80-95% JUNE 14-15, WITH A
40-65% CHANCE FOR A MAJOR HEATRISK OR HIGHER. NOTE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE OVER THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO.
ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR THOSE WHO HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AND BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL EXTREME HEAT. THOSE PLANNING ON SWIMMING
IN RIVERS OR LAKES TO COOL OFF SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SWIFT CURRENTS, WHICH CAN BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. -99/23
AVIATION
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CIGS/VIS PERSIST AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM, HOWEVER, EXPECT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN LIKELY
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST BY 12-16Z THIS MORNING WHILE CIGS LOWER TO
MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER RAIN BEGINS, AROUND 16-21Z ALONG THE COAST
AND 19-22Z INLAND. CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 19-22Z AS WELL. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH INCREASE
AHEAD AND THEN ALONG THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ALONG THE
COAST BY 18-20Z AND 25-30 KTS INLAND BY 00-04Z TUE. ISOLATED
GUSTS AT INLAND SITES NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 00-04Z
TIMEFRAME. STEADIER RAIN THEN BREAKS TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS TURN A
TOUCH MORE WESTERLY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT
CIGS TO BECOME MVFR BY 19-22Z TODAY, CONTINUING AT 1.5-2KFT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFTER
21-23Z TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. -99
MARINE
OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY
APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING SLATED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NOTICEABLE INCREASE THIS MORNING, PEAKING
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THAT SAID, EVEN STRONGER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON WHERE GALE-FORCE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY (70-80%). NORTH OF THIS POINT GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT APPEAR MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THUS, A
GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON THROUGH 1900 TODAY. A FRESH WESTERLY SWELL AND WIND
WAVES ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD FROM 4-5 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 7-9 FT AT
8-9 SECONDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CONTINUED
DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GUST NEAR 20-25 KNOT
WHILE SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AFTER WHICH POINT
LINGERING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DROP INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE AND
SQUARE SEAS SETTLE SLIGHTLY.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
STEADILY TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE - A
RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES
WILL SEE DIURNAL PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH COULD NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR 5-7 FT WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT
9-11 SECONDS. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-273.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ272-
273.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page