951
FXUS66 KPQR 081825
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1125 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND WET TO HOT AND DRY. THIS IS A SIMPLE,
CONCISE, BUT ACCURATE SUMMATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
COME AS WE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS AND BEYOND.
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER SOGGY AND COOL, ESPECIALLY BY
JUNE STANDARDS, AS STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS OVER WESTERN
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BEFORE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANTICIPATE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45 MPH.
WHILE THE COOLER/WETTER FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK IS UNUSUALLY
SPRING-LIKE, WE HAVE TO PAY THE PROVERBIAL PIPER AT SOME POINT,
AND IT APPEARS HE'S COMING TO COLLECT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAT
EVENT IN THE JUNE 13-16 TIMEFRAME - A STARK CONTRAST TO HOW THIS
WEEK BEGINS. DON'T GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD AND START PREPARING FOR
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS, YOU'LL THANK YOURSELF LATER.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COOL, WET, AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SUB-1000MB
SURFACE LOW QUICKLY BEARING DOWN ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. MODELING SYSTEMS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED SURFACED LOW TRACKING
OVER THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS LONG BEACH
PENINSULA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE LARGE SWATH OF STEADY
STRATIFORM RAIN AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR AROUND SUNRISE
AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
TURNING OUR FOCUS BACK TO THAT SURFACE LOW, AS IT SWINGS INTO
THE COASTLINE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AIDED BY 40-50 KNOT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR 850MB (A NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL
JET FEATURE) LIKELY FACILITATES BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
FIRST AT THE COAST, THEN INLAND. THE PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS S COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AMPLIFYING VERTICAL
MIXING (AGAIN, REMEMBER THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE) WHILE THE N TO S PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS. WHILE THE
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY HAS GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS, THIS IS A SCENARIO WHEN
WINDS COULD OVERPERFORM (20-40% CHANCE) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALIGNMENT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS RECORD GUSTS CLOSER TO
40-45 MPH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, AND IN THE CENTRAL/NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY
DURING THE 4-10PM TIMEFRAME. IT MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME THIS
MORNING TO SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS IN YOUR YARD IF YOU LIVE IN A
LOCATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW TO HOLD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE MAINLY INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS WHICH IS 4 TO
8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT LEAST THE
LATEST NBM POPS SUGGEST SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TOTALS CONCERNED, THE VAST MAJORITY
FALLS BETWEEN 5AM THIS MORNING AND 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC NBM DURING THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0" OVER INLAND VALLEYS, AROUND 1"
AT THE COAST, AND 1-2" IN THE COAST RANGE, WILLAPA HILLS, AND
CASCADES. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 0.5" OF RAIN HAVE SETTLED
AROUND 85-95%, AND PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE
25-50% OVER THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY INTO PORTLAND METRO
(ONLY 10% NEAR EUGENE), AND 80-95% ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE,
WILLAPA HILLS, AND CASCADES. WE'LL DEFINITELY TAKE ANY RAINFALL
WE CAN GET THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND LOOKING AHEAD IT MAY BE THE
LAST WE'LL SEE FOR AWHILE. -99
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND THEN IT GETS HOT.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THE HEAT TRULY KICKS IN, EXPECT RATHER PLEASANT
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, EXCEPT 60S AT THE COAST - ENJOY. FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PACIFIC, WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR EAST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HEATING UP SIGNIFICANTLY JUNE 13-15. THIS IS WHEN THE
LREF MEAN SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 97-98TH
PERCENTILE AND THE NBM SHOWS A 60-90% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND LESS THAN A
10% CHANCE AT THE COAST. IN FACT THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES JUNE 14-15 FOR INLAND
VALLEYS, SUGGESTING A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID OR
EVEN UPPER 60S WILL OFFER MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ANY MEANS OF COOLING. AS SUCH, PROBABILITIES FOR A
MODERATE HEATRISK OR HIGHER PEAK NEAR 80-95% JUNE 14-15, WITH A
40-65% CHANCE FOR A MAJOR HEATRISK OR HIGHER. NOTE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE OVER THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO.
ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR THOSE WHO HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AND BE
PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL EXTREME HEAT. THOSE PLANNING ON SWIMMING
IN RIVERS OR LAKES TO COOL OFF SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SWIFT CURRENTS, WHICH CAN BECOME LIFE
THREATENING. -99/23
AVIATION
STEADY RAIN HAS BEGUN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES
THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIS/CIGS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
AT LEAST IFR ALONG THE COAST AND TO MVFR AT INLAND TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 21-24Z MON. CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS INLAND REACH
15-35% TONIGHT AT INLAND TERMINALS, WHILE LIFR CHANCES DECREASE
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COAST FROM 75% AT KONP TO 25% AT KAST.
VIS RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR ARE MOST LIKELY, BUT PERIODS OF IFR
DURING HEAVIER RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
VIS/CIGS WILL TEND TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AFTER
09-15Z TUE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS MORNING WHILE TURNING OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. PEAK GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30
KT AT MOST TERMINALS, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON, 21Z MON-03Z TUE,
ALONG THE COAST AND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, 00-09Z TUE,
INLAND. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT IN THE
LOWEST 2 KFT ARE MOST LIKELY AT KONP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL TEND TO EASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AFTER 09-15Z TUE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DEGRADE TO MVFR AS CIGS FALL BELOW 2 KFT BY 21-24Z MON.
CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS REACH 25-35% FROM 21Z MON-03Z TUE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12-15Z TUE WHILE
CIGS SLOWLY LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KT BY 00Z TUE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 12-15Z TUE. WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO TURN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. -36
MARINE
OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY
APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING SLATED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NOTICEABLE INCREASE THIS MORNING, PEAKING
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD 30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THAT SAID, EVEN STRONGER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON WHERE GALE-FORCE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 KNOTS ARE LIKELY (70-80%). NORTH OF THIS POINT GUSTS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT APPEAR MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THUS, A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE INNER AND OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THROUGH 1900 TODAY. A FRESH WESTERLY
SWELL AND WIND WAVES ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD FROM 4-5 FT THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7-9 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A CONTINUED DOMINANT WESTERLY SWELL. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS
EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING,
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO GUST NEAR 20-25 KNOT WHILE SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEEP, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AFTER WHICH POINT LINGERING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
DROP INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE AND SQUARE SEAS SETTLE SLIGHTLY.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
STEADILY TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE - A
RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES
WILL SEE DIURNAL PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH COULD NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR 5-7 FT WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT
9-11 SECONDS. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210-251-
271.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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