299
FXUS66 KPQR 101030
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PDT WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME WARMER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK CULMINATING IN A PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY - AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PORTLAND METRO AND WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE. THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS YEAR. AT LEAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80-90%) CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (70S TO NEAR 80) RETURN BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND A WELCOME DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
WEDNESDAY IS THE START OF
THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE REMNANTS OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERHEAD. STILL, THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST/COAST RANGE, SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON, AND THE CASCADES. AFTER THIS POINT, DRY WEATHER
LIKELY RETURNS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INLAND
VALLEYS, LOW TO UPPER 50S FOR THE CASCADES AND MID 50S TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST.
WE THEN BEGIN TO WARM-UP FURTHER ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE
SURFACE PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH AND KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER PLEASANT OVERALL. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THUR/FRI
ONLY JUMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS
WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST - AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENJOY THESE TEMPERATURES, BECAUSE IT'S ONLY
UPWARD FROM THERE. -99
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OUR FOCUS REMAINS ON HEAT RELATED IMPACTS AS
THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE WE'LL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF 2026 THUS FAR. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SLOWLY MEANDERING TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY IS WHEN TEMPERATURES MAKE THEIR
NEXT LARGE JUMP HIGHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND VALLEYS. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
ABOVE 90 DEGREES F HAVE LOWERED COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS,
GENERALLY IN THE 10-40% RANGE FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THEN
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
90S - HIGHEST ON MONDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
AT OR ABOVE 95 DEGREES ARE 20-65% ON SATURDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE PORTLAND METRO. THESE SAME
PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 95 DEGREES PEAK ON SUNDAY AROUND 45-90%,
AGAIN HIGHEST IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY INTO THE PORTLAND METRO.
IT'S WORTH NOTING WE'LL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MEET OR EXCEED
100 DEGREES ON MONDAY, MAINLY SALEM THROUGH PORTLAND, WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 30-40%. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS BOTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING OF THE WINDOW OF RELIEF
FROM THE HOT DAYTIME HIGHS RATHER LIMITED.
AS FAR AS MAJOR HEATRISK IS CONCERNED, THERE IS A 55-80%
PROBABILITY TO HIT THIS CATEGORY ON SUNDAY AND A 25-80%
PROBABILITY ON MONDAY (HIGHEST PORTLAND METRO, LOWEST NEAR
EUGENE AND ALONG THE COAST). AT LEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD THE
PROBABILITY FOR EXTREME HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION IS ONLY 5-15%
OR LESS. ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR THOSE WHO HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR AND TAKES STEPS TO MITIGATE
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO SEEK RELIEF BY
SWIMMING IN LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND/OR LAKES TO COOL OFF, BE
MINDFUL OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES AND SWIFT CURRENTS WHICH CAN
BECOME LIFE THREATENING IF PRECAUTIONS LIKE WEARING A LIFE
PRESERVER IS NOT TAKEN.
GIVEN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PROGRESSION, A THERMALLY INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE
CASCADE CREST-LINE WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS
WITHIN THE CASCADES GAPS AND/OR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DEPENDING
ON ITS ORIENTATION. AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE. THEREFORE, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS, THERE ARE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. SO, BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IGNITION SOURCES SUCH AS
CHAINS DRAGGING ON THE PAVEMENT, HOT VEHICLE COMPONENTS, AS WELL
AS CIGARETTE BUTTS AS THESE COULD EASILY RESULT IN THE IGNITION
OF DRY, FINE FUELS. LIVE VEGETATION AND LARGER FUELS MAY NOT
HAVE THE TIME TO DRY OUT, BUT THIS IS A VARIABLE THAT IS BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED BY OUR STATE AND FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS.
FORTUNATELY THE HEAT WON'T LAST FOREVER. COME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY (JUNE 16/17TH), ENSEMBLE MODELING SYSTEMS DO DEPICT
THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING
A RETURN OF RELATIVELY COOLER WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THERE'S
STILL A NOTABLE AMOUNT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS TRANSITION
TAKES PLACE ON TUESDAY OR IF IT HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BUT
AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DO PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
BACK INTO THE 70S OR LOW 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IN
GENERAL THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES FALL WITHIN THESE VALUES.
THE LATEST NBM ONLY GIVES THE INLAND VALLEYS A 5-15% CHANCE FOR
HIGHS TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES F ON WEDNESDAY. SO, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS TO RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -99/42
AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND VFR
INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LINGERING
ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THESE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS MORNING WITH THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL, PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST REMAIN AROUND 40-50% UNTIL 15-17Z AFTER
WHICH POINT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD LIKELY LEADS TO INCREASING CLOUD BREAKS
AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS BY THE EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY STAY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 5-10 KNOTS MOST HOURS AT ALL SITES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS ~20-30% CHANCE FOR HIGH-END MVFR CIGS
(~2.5-3KFT) UNTIL 16-17Z. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY HOLD
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL WITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COMPLETELY
DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-END VFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AFTER
00-03Z THU. -99
.MARINE..SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUY
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 6-8 FT AT ~10 SECONDS,
LIKELY ENDING UP CLOSER 5-6FT AT 10 SECONDS BUT THE END OF THE
DAY. FROM HERE OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW WNW WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME NORTH WIND PATTERN GOING
FORWARD. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20-28 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND - HIGHEST GUSTS GENERALLY OVER
THE OUTER WATERS AND SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. DURING THIS PERIOD OF
TIME, WAVE HEIGHTS HOLD BETWEEN 4-7FT AT 9 TO 10 SECONDS. THIS
MAY NECESSITATE DAILY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY LONGER. -99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ109-111-112-120.
WA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ206-207-209.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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