798
FXUS66 KPQR 102105
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 PM PDT WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN WA/OR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS, ALONG WITH HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
INLAND VALLEYS. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO,
WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE, CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER COLUMBIA FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OF 95-100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S OR WARMER, RESULTING IN A MAJOR HEATRISK.
REMAINING INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND NORTHWEST
OR HAVE A MODERATE HEATRISK, MAINLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH THE RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR, SATELLITE, AND
SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND NORTHWEST OR TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF OAKRIDGE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL ATTEMPT BREAKING UP LATE IN
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR TONIGHT. NOTE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER SHORT NIGHTS THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT DIFFICULT.
ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S, EXCEPT 60S AT THE COAST. FRIDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY, ALBEIT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY. WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE, EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FROM CASCADE LOCKS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH. -23
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM FORECAST
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A THREE TO FOUR DAY HEAT EVENT WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR EXPECTED. THE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO WESTERN WA/OR EACH DAY. AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, WESTERN COLUMBIA
GORGE, CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OF 95-100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
OR WARMER, RESULTING IN A MAJOR HEATRISK. REMAINING INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND NORTHWEST OR HAVE A MODERATE
HEATRISK, MAINLY DUE TO RELATIVELY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST HAS A MINOR HEATRISK, WHILE INLAND COASTAL
COMMUNITIES SUCH AS ASTORIA AND TILLAMOOK HAVE A MODERATE HEATRISK.
THE REASON THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED IN
TIME IS DUE TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 06Z/JUNE 10 ITERATION OF THE GEFS HAS TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY UPWARD ON MONDAY, JUNE 15. THE EURO ENSEMBLE
REMAINS RELATIVELY COOLER THAN THE GEFS, BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.
MEANWHILE, THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS TICKED
UP A COUPLE DEGREES, AND IS NOW SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE EXTREME
HEAT WATCH. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED THAT TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
HOT, ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS MONDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TUESDAY,
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF ANY DAY DURING
THE HEAT EVENT. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN PLACE AND A WARM START TO
THE DAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE NEARLY AS WARM AS
MONDAY. THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 25-50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 95
DEGREES OR WARMER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, AND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR THE COWLITZ VALLEY,
LOWER COLUMBIA, COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
PROBABILITIES FOR A MAJOR HEATRISK OR HIGHER ON TUESDAY RANGE BETWEEN
15-35% IN THESE AREAS, HIGHEST IN THE PORTLAND METRO.
ANYONE WHO IS SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR THOSE WHO HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR AND TAKES STEPS TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL HEAT
IMPACTS. FOR THOSE PLANNING TO SEEK RELIEF BY SWIMMING IN LOCAL AREA
RIVERS AND/OR LAKES TO COOL OFF, BE MINDFUL OF COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SWIFT CURRENTS WHICH CAN BECOME LIFE THREATENING IF
PRECAUTIONS LIKE WEARING A LIFE JACKET ARE NOT TAKEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH CURED GRASSES AND FINER FUELS. A THERMALLY
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE
CASCADE CREST, BRINGING STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE/CASCADES
GAPS AND THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASE, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE. GIVEN THE HOT, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, THERE ARE INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IGNITION SOURCES SUCH AS
CHAINS DRAGGING ON THE PAVEMENT, HOT VEHICLE COMPONENTS, AS WELL AS
CIGARETTE BUTTS AS THESE COULD EASILY RESULT IN THE IGNITION OF CURED
GRASSES AND DRY, FINE FUELS. LIVE VEGETATION AND LARGER FUELS MAY NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DRY OUT PRIOR TO THE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS,
BUT THIS IS A VARIABLE THAT IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY OUR STATE
AND FEDERAL FIRE PARTNERS.
FORTUNATELY, TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST HOT DAY. COME WEDNESDAY,
JUNE 17, ENSEMBLE MODELING SYSTEMS DO DEPICT THE RIDGE FINALLY
BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EASTWARD BRINGING A RETURN OF RELATIVELY
COOLER WESTERLY FLOW. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WHEN THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE
70S OR LOWER 80S. -23/99
AVIATION
LARGELY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE IN COVERAGE IN THE COMING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OFFSHORE WILL FAVOR STEADILY CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, EASING BELOW 5 KT
AFTER 06-12Z THU. THERE ARE 15-35% CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ANY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INHIBIT LOW
CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST, BUT MARINE STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE COASTLINE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND CLEARER THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WINDS EASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
(15-20%) CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS BENEATH STRATUS AFTER 12Z THU. -36
.MARINE..BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS CONTINUE AT 4-6 FT AT 10 SECONDS WITH A DOMINANT
WESTERLY SWELL WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AT 6-12
KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DIURNAL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN, PEAKING EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER, AND TRENDING WEAKER TO THE
NORTH. WHILE SEAS CONTINUE AT 4-7 FT WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY
SWELL, GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY MERIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ108>115-120.
WA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WAZ206-207-209.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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